The effects of the pandemic on departures from Montreal to adjacent regions have faded in the past year, but they remain significant, in particular due to the widespread use of a hybrid work method. A trend towards remoteness which has direct repercussions on the environment and the real estate market, underline several experts.
63,600 people left the island of Montreal to settle elsewhere in Quebec between 2021 and 2022, compared to 29,100 people who followed the opposite path. The metropolis thus recorded a net loss of 34,500 residents to the benefit of the rest of the province, which represents 1.9% of its population. The vast majority of these departures benefited the adjacent regions, including the Laurentians, Lanaudière, Montérégie and Estrie, show new data from the Institut de la Statistique du Québec (ISQ) published on Wednesday.
This deficit for the metropolis is smaller than at the peak of the pandemic, between 2020 and 2021. Montreal had then lost, net, 48,300 of its residents to the benefit of other regions of the province. The losses recorded last year are still “among the largest recorded” by the ISQ since the early 2000s, notes demographer Martine St-Amour, one of the authors of this analysis.
Montreal is also “deficit” in “all age groups”, except among young adults in their early twenties, attracted by the metropolis due in particular to the presence of several renowned universities, indicates Ms. Love. “Meanwhile, the greatest losses continue to be recorded in the age groups where families with children are found,” she adds.
Towards a more distant suburb
Thousands of Montrealers moved to Laval last year. However, this city still recorded a net loss of 815 residents to the benefit of the rest of Quebec, in particular because many residents of Île Jésus left it last year to settle further north, in the Laurentians. To the point where Laval has displayed “a negative internal migration balance for three years now”, indicates the ISQ.
A clear symbol of the effects of the pandemic on urban sprawl, which has facilitated the use of a hybrid working mode in which many workers only have to come to the office once or twice a week , says Jean-Philippe Meloche, professor at the School of Urban Planning and Landscape Architecture at the University of Montreal.
“Urban sprawl, with the pandemic, has taken on a greater dimension than it was before. Before, people went to live 30 or 45 minutes from home and they went by shuttle every day to go to work, ”notes the expert. However, in the current context, “we have people who will go to work two or three hundred kilometers from their office, telling themselves that they will telecommute and go to the office once in a while”, adds Mr. Meloche.
A situation similar to that of Laval is unfolding in Montérégie. In 2022, this region saw its migratory gains thin for a third consecutive year, many of its residents having chosen to go into exile even further from Montreal. “Montérégie is a big winner compared to Montreal, but in deficit compared to most other regions of Quebec, particularly Estrie,” notes the ISQ.
These departures from Montreal to increasingly distant suburbs can have effects on the environment since the use of the car for daily travel, in particular to go grocery shopping or to take the children to daycare, is widespread in outside major centers, notes Mr. Meloche. “In the end, I will increase my mileage by 15-20% at the end of the year, even if I work from home,” he analyzes.
Gains for remote regions
Historically, remote regions joined Montreal by also having a negative migratory balance within Quebec. However, this is no longer the case for many of them. The regions of Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Bas-Saint-Laurent and Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean have all recorded “their highest gains after those, unprecedented, obtained in 2020-2021 “.
Fewer and fewer residents of these regions are moving elsewhere in Quebec, particularly to the metropolis. “So Montreal has been able to count less in recent years from regions further away from major centers,” as was the case in the early 2000s, explains Martine St-Amour.
However, it is not only in Montreal and Laval that the ISQ notes a negative net interregional migration. This is also the case for a few remote regions, namely Abitibi-Témiscamingue, northern Quebec and the North Shore. However, the latter is the only region in Quebec that has recorded a net decrease in its population, even taking into account international immigration, notes Martine St-Amour. “Migratory losses weigh heavily on the North Shore,” notes the demographer.
“A return of the pendulum” to come?
Montreal nevertheless benefited last year from the resumption of international immigration, which enabled it to see its population grow by 14,000 people, even taking into account the tens of thousands of departures recorded for neighboring regions, nuance the ISQ.
However, the resumption of immigration is not currently sufficient to change current trends in the real estate market, underlines the Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers of Quebec (APCIQ). The resale market thus continues to be “overheated” in the suburbs of Montreal while it is experiencing a relaxation in the metropolis, in particular in its downtown area, notes the director of the Market Analysis Service of the ‘APCIQ, Charles Brant.
A situation that could ultimately lead to a certain “return of the pendulum” by encouraging residents of the suburbs to return to Montreal “in the coming years” due to the narrowing of the gap between the price of properties offered on the market in these two sectors, foresees Mr. Brant. “It is certain that market conditions are migrating towards a market to the advantage of buyers” in Montreal, which could attract new residents from the suburbs, he argues. To be continued.