Without much surprise, the latest Léger-Québecor survey confirmed what the firm Pallas Data had already noted: the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is no longer only in decline, but in free fall, just like the personal rating of the first Minister François Legault, who is now the most unpopular in Canada.
Everything is a matter of reproach for a government in disgrace. In other circumstances, investments in the battery sector or the grandiose projects of Hydro-Québec would be welcomed with enthusiasm, but we mainly remember the disadvantages.
The qualities that were once found in Mr. Legault have transformed into faults. Not so long ago, his most flat excuses were seen as proof of his humanity and modesty, whereas now they are a cause of annoyance and an object of mockery.
By his own admission, the mess linked to the third link, the exorbitant increase in the salaries of deputies and the absurd subsidy financing the arrival of the Los Angeles Kings upset the voters, but the first reason for dissatisfaction established by Léger is the inability to repair the health and education networks.
In either case, the CAQ had promised a lot and delivered very little. The old refrain of blaming the former government is worn out, and the pandemic is not considered a valid excuse.
It is to be hoped that the bills presented by Christian Dubé and Bernard Drainville will eventually produce results, but their effects will not be felt for a while. For the moment, the population only sees patients languishing in emergency rooms, sometimes to the point of death, and dilapidated schools, deserted by teachers, while the most gifted or fortunate students take refuge in the private.
The government may cite the housing crisis raging from coast to coast and stimulate the construction of new housing, but the minister responsible is seen as the tool of greedy landlords who only seek to exploit tenants who are reduced to resorting to food banks.
Of course, there are still almost three years before the next elections and we have already seen a government, that of Jean Charest between 2003 and 2007, go back down an even steeper slope, but it is the exception that confirms the rule. Allowing such widespread dissatisfaction to persist risks making it irreversible.
François Legault cannot simply hope that the ongoing reforms will bear fruit or that inflation will return to an acceptable level. He urgently needs a success to at least stop the hemorrhaging of voting intentions for his party.
The most important issue that can be resolved in the short term is that of negotiations in the public sector. The salary offer that the government tabled on Wednesday demonstrates its desire to reach a settlement as quickly as possible.
It is clear that increased flexibility in the organization of work is necessary, but it is equally obvious that the government is not in a position to impose its will, and the unions know this very well.
Establishing a regulation by Christmas would not wipe the slate clean, but would at least allow the CAQ to start next year on a better foot, while waiting for a drop in interest rates and a recovery in the economy improves the mood of voters.
All this probably does not give Mr. Legault a crazy desire to seek a third mandate, as he still said he intended to do at the end of September. Even if he now considers leaving, he must do everything to avoid leaving a hopeless situation for his possible successor.
Once again, it is clear that the meteoric rise of the Parti Québécois has no ripple effect on support for the idea of independence. Not only does the Yes vote remain at 34%, but 47% of Quebecers still prefer federalism as it is to the risks of separation.
While the CAQ demands autonomy that Ottawa still refuses to grant to Quebec, voters would be ready to renounce the recognition of its specificity rather than leave the federation.
François Legault may have turned his back on sovereignty, but it is difficult to imagine him making a Jean Chrétien of himself in a debate where we would have to choose between independence and the status quo. It is even the CAQ as a whole that would lose all relevance.