Automakers commit “on a kind of upscaling with electricity which is highly problematic in relation to the climate objective”, estimated Monday, October 17 on franceinfo Bernard Jullien, lecturer at the University of Bordeaux and specialist in the automotive industry. Emmanuel Macron, announced Sunday in Les Echos several measures to encourage the French to buy electric cars. The President of the Republic is aiming for one million vehicles produced in France before the end of the five-year term.
>>> Automotive: “France is not ready” to achieve the objective of a 100% French electrical industry, says an economist
franceinfo: 100% electric cars sold in France in 10 years, is it possible?
Bernard Julien: We must effectively multiply the production capacities of vehicles, batteries and components by ten or fifteen. Obviously, this means that everything remains to be done and that, in a certain way, the landscape that we are described as being outrageously dominated today by Chinese industry, it can also be reversed. Obviously, this calls for a voluntarism which Emmanuel Macron seems to want to show.
Does a 100% French electrical sector seem realistic to you?
You have to moderate. We can clearly see that in three battery factories that are emerging in France, we have one that will be more Franco-German. We have another that will be more Franco-French. And then, we have a third which is quite clearly Chinese. So there is indeed an urgency and therefore a need to do with what we have for the moment, given the lead taken by Chinese industry. We are almost forced, this is the case of the Germans and France too, to resort to technologies and raw materials which are for the moment quite largely Chinese. But that can change.
Emmanuel Macron announces an increase in the bonus of 1,000 euros to bring it to 7,000 euros. Will the manufacturers include it in the selling prices?
We are almost certain that there will be an integration in the selling prices. Manufacturers had said that the electric was going to be an economic disaster, that it was going to weigh down their profitability and that they would do everything not to sell more than necessary. And then today, they have an appetite for electricity, which refers to the fact that it is very profitable. And if it’s profitable, it’s partly because the state subsidizes.
The best-selling electric car in France today is the Peugeot 208, which costs twice as much to buy as its thermal version. When will electric cars be cheaper?
There is a real issue because what we want is not to stop selling thermal cars in 2035. What we want is to be clean in 2050. And for that, we must of course register electric vehicles, but you have to register them in numbers and to register them in numbers, they will have to be cheaper. For the moment, we are embarking on a kind of move upmarket with electricity, which is highly problematic in relation to the climate objective and, moreover, risks favoring German industry rather than French industry. The French way is what Montebourg used to call the “clean popular vehicles”. This is the way to go. It seems that Renault, with the R5, is probably with the 4L, wants to go in those spans.
Why are there not more electrical terminals in France?
We have private operators who know that they will lose money if they go to these spans. Today, obviously, as soon as households buy electric vehicles, they recharge either at the office or at home, because it’s cheaper, because it’s more practical, and so on. So today, what is needed is a systematic plan for recharging at the office, recharging at the factory, possibly recharging at the supermarkets, etc. Charging on public roads will always be an economic dead end.