How to qualify the political position of the Coalition futur Quebec? Center-right nationalism? Populism? The CAQ is more of an electoral party, which simply seeks to propose policies that are as close as possible to the preferences of the average Quebec voter.
Out of the three main cleavages in Quebec politics, the left-right opposition between the state and the market, the identity division and the sovereignism-federalism axis, the CAQ systematically chooses the most common position. This is not the case for the other parties in Quebec, which must reconcile the wishes of their militant base and those of the average voter.
When the CAQ was elected, many feared that the party was resolutely on the right in its relationship to the role of the Quebec state. However, after years of budgetary austerity imposed by the Couillard government, various polls show that a majority of Quebecers prefer an increase in public spending to a reduction in taxes. Before the health crisis, the Legault government had considerably increased social spending, especially in education and health. These have increased even more rapidly since.
The compulsory levy rate, which measures the total taxes paid relative to the size of the economy, increased slightly during the first two years of the Caquist government, even though the school tax was reduced. This is explained by the increase in contributions to the Quebec Pension Plan and by the growth in personal income. The “real” right-wing parties in the other provinces would certainly have lowered taxes rather than increased spending, especially during a period of strong economic growth like in 2018-2019.
On the identity axis, whether we like it or not, Bill 21 is in tune with the opinion of the majority, just like Bill 96. Imposing Bill 101 on CEGEPs would certainly have done a better job of preserving French, but the CAQ preferred not to jostle the average francophone voter, who wants to have access to the CEGEP of their choice. Although sovereignty is no longer the order of the day, the average voter wants an autonomous Quebec in a decentralized federation, but which does not pose fundamental gestures of rupture with Canada.
The CAQ can afford this electoralism at all costs because the party is the creation of its leader. Thus, the Caquist deputies owe their election to the popularity of François Legault more than to their own notoriety, while the party’s militant base remains small and ideologically fragmented. The chief and his advisers can therefore decide on the policies to be implemented according to the polls.
The other parties
Unlike the CAQ, the other parties must arbitrate between the preferences of their militant base and those of the average voter. Québec solidaire must reconcile the far-left policies proposed by its base and the preferences of the average voter outside of Montreal. Throughout its history, the Parti Québécois has always suffered from this tension between voters wanting a “strong Quebec in a united Canada” and party members who are proposing the holding of a referendum in a first term.
Finally, the Liberal Party of Quebec is traditionally the party conveying the interests of the economic elite and must satisfy an electoral base comprising the anglophone and allophone minorities. Rarely have we seen a Quebec government so disconnected from the preferences of the majority as that of Philippe Couillard. The imposition of draconian budget austerity measures, uninhibited federalism and the Couillard government’s indifference to the future of French were indigestible for most Francophone voters, resulting in the worst defeat in recent history of the left.
Electoralism and populism
Contrary to what many assert, this governance according to the polls is not outright populism. According to populist scholar Cas Mudde, this political current separates society into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups: the good people and the corrupt and disconnected elites. On the contrary, François Legault presents himself as an heir of the Quiet Revolution and of Quebec inc. who practices an “efficient left”. However, it must be admitted that the Legault government sometimes sinks into nativism, a characteristic of populist parties, by opposing ethnic Quebecers to immigrants.
If the rights of minorities are protected, this electoral governance can be commendable since public policies approach the will of the greatest number. However, electoralism can lead to abuses. It seems that the management of the pandemic is more politicized in Quebec than in other countries and regions of the world, since certain scientific recommendations based on surveys are being rejected. In doing so, we certainly maintain the public’s support for health measures, but above all we maintain the popularity of the Legault government, despite the errors.