A new sign of the good health of the American economy in the first quarter, job creation once again largely exceeded expectations in March, allowing the unemployment rate to fall slightly, a fact which could encourage the central bank American (Fed) to delay further.
The unemployment rate fell slightly in March, to 3.8% compared to 3.9% in February, and 303,000 jobs were created, according to figures released Friday by the Labor Department.
Job creations are still up in March compared to the previous month (270,000) despite a downward revision of the February figure (275,000 initially announced).
Analysts for their part were instead counting on a marked drop in creation, anticipating 200,000 additional jobs, according to the consensus published by briefing.com.
In a press release, American President Joe Biden, who is making the economy one of his campaign arguments in favor of his re-election at the end of the year against his Republican competitor and predecessor Donald Trump, welcomed that “unemployment i.e. below 4% over the longest period in 50 years.”
“In March, we passed the mark of 15 million jobs created since my arrival,” he added, “those are 15 million people who have the dignity and respect that a salary allows.”
The day before, employment statistics in the private sector had already given an idea of the trend for the month of March, with creations again exceeding expectations.
Data from the Department of Labor underline the solidity of employment in the health, administration and construction sectors, a sign also that real estate, which has tended to slow down under the effect of successive increases in rate by the Fed, seems to be starting again.
The industrial sector, on the other hand, remains stable “a sign of its difficulties between significant trade deficit and interest rates limiting the expansion of an industrial policy”, regretted in a press release Paul Scott, the president of the association bringing together manufacturing industries. .
However, salary increases are now occurring at levels more in line with long-term trends, with an increase of 0.3% observed over one month, or 4.1% over the last 12 months.
The Fed waits
Furthermore, working time is also stabilizing, with a slight increase of 0.1 hour in weekly working time, bringing it to 34.4 hours. The Department of Labor estimates that a person is full-time from 35 hours per week.
The New York Stock Exchange opened slightly higher on Friday after the publication of this data which could encourage the Fed to wait before a highly anticipated rate cut.
“This is a very good report from the Fed’s point of view,” said Dan North, economist for Allianz Trade interviewed by AFP, “it is the perfect combination of robust growth and solid employment of on one side, inflation slowing on the other.”
After a long cycle of increases intended to slow inflation, the American central bank is expected to begin lowering its rates this year but uncertainty remains over when this reduction should begin to materialize.
On Wednesday, its president Jerome Powell recalled that “the risk of acting too soon would be to see inflation start to rise again, which would be disruptive” for the American economy.
Another Fed official, Raphael Bostic, for his part judged that it was possible that the institution would only make one rate cut this year, and that this would only take place during the last quarter, potentially after the US presidential elections in early November.
The markets are currently anticipating up to three.
“There is no urgency to start lowering rates,” believes Mr. North, “to the extent that we do not see a big movement towards the 2% inflation” targeted by the Fed.
In February, the PCE price index, which is the one favored by the Fed for the conduct of its monetary policy, stood at 2.5%, up slightly compared to January, encouraging the central bank to exercise caution. .