With a vote of confidence of 98.6% of his delegates, a majority worthy of the recent congress of the Chinese Communist Party, François Legault faces two dangers: unanimity and a form of Catholicism – we will explain this a little later.
First of all, it should be noted that in the constitution of the CAQ, any member in good standing can vote at the convention. Just show up, no delegates nominated by their riding association, and therefore not really a representative sample of all party members.
In this case, those who weren’t happy just didn’t show up. What’s the point of talking about abandoning the third link when you know you’ll be jeered at by the leader’s supporters.
This relativizes (a little) the 98.6% support, but does not explain it. The explanation is that the CAQ is the creature of François Legault.
The party has completely erased the few ADQ roots that still existed, it no longer has any historical references other than the current speeches of its leader.
But the first great danger for the CAQ is unanimity. Already, the Prime Minister had a super-majority in the National Assembly, which is not too controversial. But in the post-conference circumstances, who at the CAQ – be it an activist, a deputy or even a minister – will be able to tell François Legault that he is wrong or even that he should change course?
We see it on the issue of dams: Mr. Legault may cover his speech on energy in green and now talk about wind turbines and energy savings – provided that it costs users nothing – but he always building new dams, even if it cost him the resignation of Sophie Brochu as CEO of Hydro-Québec.
It remains to be seen now what will be the attitude of Mr. Legault on a certain number of files which are electoral promises, but which are faltering. Are we going to continue for a long time with Homes for Elders that cost up to 1 million dollars per room, an expense that is simply not sustainable? We could also talk about Blue Spaces, Lab-Schools or 4-year-old kindergartens.
We have rarely seen a Prime Minister have so much control over his party and his government. With a congress like this, who will dare to enter the office of the boss to tell him that he is on the wrong track?
The other danger is Catholicism. In secular version, of course. Because the CAQ, about its leader, is becoming a bit like the Catholic Church: the pope may be infallible, but he’s not immortal.
So, if we can’t challenge the pope, we can still start preparing for his succession. This is all the more relevant at this time since since Maurice Duplessis, there has been only one case of a Prime Minister (Jean Charest) who has won a third consecutive term (in 2008).
Will Mr. Legault want to run again in 2026? In a press briefing at the end of the congress, he said that he would have two criteria: health and feeling the support of the population.
There is only one thing that is certain: at the time of the next election, the Prime Minister will be 69 years old. Nothing allows to say if he will decide to represent himself or not, but one can think that the question of age should not be decisive. After all, he will be considerably younger – and fitter – than will be the President of the United States, be it Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
But these situations are always complicated for a political party. There are people who quite legitimately have ambitions. We already know that ministers like Geneviève Guilbault, Simon Jolin-Barrette or Sonia LeBel have ambitions. Others, more discreet today, could be added to the list.
In such circumstances, what almost always happens in a political party and even in a government is a latent leadership race that ends up undermining the authority of the prime minister.
Think of Jean Chrétien’s last term when Paul Martin left cabinet to better prepare his leadership campaign and where all government decisions were weighed against the effect they would have on the succession.
The same was true during the last mandate of Robert Bourassa, when the succession, against a backdrop of aboriginal and constitutional crisis and illness of the Prime Minister, occupied everyone’s mind and undermined decision-making.
Mr. Legault has just noticed that a second term – even with a huge majority – is always more complicated than the first. And if no one openly disputes this today, it is inevitable that the frolicking of the ambitious will begin.
Clarification: in a previous version of the column, the author mentioned the Blue Houses as CAQ promises that are faltering. It should have read “the Blue Spaces”.