After seven months of an acrimonious leadership race, the Conservative Party of Canada will announce Saturday night in Ottawa who will replace former leader Erin O’Toole, who was shown the door by the majority of its caucus in February. .
Five candidates are in the running, namely MPs Pierre Poilievre, Leslyn Lewis and Scott Aitchison, as well as former Quebec Premier Jean Charest and Roman Baber, a former Ontario MPP who was expelled from caucus by the Premier Doug Ford because of his opposition to quarantines.
Former Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown was disqualified from the race in early July. The party accuses him of having violated the electoral law. Several ex-strategists therefore felt that Jean Charest’s path to victory would be even narrower.
According to several observers, the race essentially opposed Pierre Poilievre, who proposes a turn to the right and who led a populist campaign under the theme of “freedom”, and Jean Charest, who seems to be targeting the center right of the political spectrum.
Mr. Poilievre’s lead seemed to be confirmed during the summer. His team claimed to have sold nearly 312,000 membership cards, nearly half of the 675,000 members called to vote and more than the total number of members who voted in the last two leadership races. left. The candidate has also attracted hundreds, sometimes even thousands, of supporters to rallies.
Camp Charest claims to have strong support in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. It relies on the point system used by the party to determine the outcome.
During the race, Mr. Poilievre extolled the merits of cryptocurrencies as “a cure for inflation”, which earned him the qualification of “irresponsible” by Jean Charest. The MP also accused the Bank of Canada of letting inflation rise with its policies and announced plans to replace central bank governor Tiff Macklem if he becomes prime minister.
The animosity between the two belligerents was so flagrant that from the start of the first official debate of the race, when going up on the stage, they had avoided shaking hands. Mr Poilievre had particularly harsh words for the former prime minister, saying the average trucker “has more integrity in his little finger than you had in your whole Liberal cabinet of scandals”. During the exchanges, Mr. Charest felt that the country does not need “American-style politics” with division and polarization.
Until the end, Jean Charest did not stop attacking Mr. Poilievre, believing that his absence from the last debate organized by the party demonstrates that the one who is considered the favorite in the race is not “a real leader since he refuses to debate his proposals.
All the leadership candidates have sworn to be in the best position to unify the party, which is finishing its third leadership race in six years, with Andrew Scheer and then Erin O’Toole not having lasted long after the resignation, in 2016, of the first leader of the political formation, Stephen Harper, who had given them three governments.
Preferential ballot
In recent weeks, members in good standing of the Conservative Party of Canada as of June 3, 2022 were asked to rank in order of preference the names of those they wish to elect as leader.
The rules governing the election of the leader specify that each member’s vote counts in the electoral district in which his place of residence is located.
Under the electoral process set out in the party’s constitution, each of the 338 electoral districts is worth 100 points and votes are distributed on a pro rata basis. When fewer than 100 votes are cast in a constituency, each vote is worth one point.
Since a candidate must obtain a majority of points to win, in the event that a winner cannot be announced when the results are announced on the first ballot, the candidate who obtained the fewest points would be eliminated and the party will reallocate its supporters’ votes based on their second choice, and so on until a winner is determined.
Patrick Brown’s name remains on the ballots, but according to the party, those who nominated him as their first choice will have their vote automatically counted as their next choice.
Nearly 400,000 ballots had been received by Tuesday’s deadline.
In 2020, it took Erin O’Toole three laps to claim victory. And in 2017, Andrew Scheer won only after 13 laps against Maxime Bernier, then given favorite.
Race organizers expect the results to be announced shortly after 7 p.m. in a more sober atmosphere than initially expected, due to the Queen’s recent death.