The CAQ seems to be embarking on a long journey through the desert without an oasis on the horizon. According to projections from poll aggregator Qc125, if elections were held today, the CAQ would slip into 4e place, with only 11 deputies.
Thus, the main headliners could lose their seats, the Prime Minister himself would be in danger at L’Assomption, that says it all.
Paranoia
Obviously, we will be told that these are only polls, that a political eternity separates us from the next election and that there is plenty of time to recover.
It’s not false. However, this political eternity will be punctuated by an economically difficult period, a plan to return to budgetary balance which will inexorably affect public services and thereby diminishing the financial capacity of the government to positively surprise Quebecers.
In the meantime, the CAQ caucus will become nervous, even paranoid. MPs who do not have a ministerial function will monitor more carefully the decisions, declarations and announcements of their fellow ministers. Criticism will be increasingly heard at caucus meetings and the blind trust and loyalty that MPs had towards their Prime Minister will be severely tested.
In short, the climate will be tense if it is not already so.
Perilous reshuffle
The time will come to reshuffle the ministerial team this summer. A delicate exercise which often leaves more people disappointed than happy. Some backbenchers have been waiting for their turn for a long time and given the current discomfiture they legitimately believe that they could do better. Will the Prime Minister want to give them a chance? At the same time, he has no room for error.
However, they are waiting for him around the corner. Youri Chassin, for example, would have difficulty understanding if the Prime Minister chose, rather than entrusting him with a portfolio, to keep Éric Caire. And Mr. Chassin would not be wrong.
The liberals
Second potential tile: the Liberals will eventually have a leader, just in time for the elections. Usually, new party leaders enjoy a grace period, a honeymoon with voters, the media and political commentators. We forgive them more easily for blunders, we minimize missteps and everything is blamed on inexperience. Could the leadership race and the arrival of a new leader seduce CAQ federalist voters? We cannot exclude it.
The floor of CAQ voting intentions is fragile, it threatens to give way at any moment, taking with it many hopes and political ambitions.