The fate of Dominique Anglade will be decided in the coming months.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
In front of the cameras, no Liberal launched a slingshot. I am told that no one would have done it either on Tuesday during the private meeting with the candidates. But that may be because some had unmentionable thoughts to share with their colleagues. For them, the time to burp old on had not yet come…
Mme Anglade did not pull his party up. Still, she also suffered from the weakness of her team. In 2014, Philippe Couillard bet on stars like Carlos Leitão, Martin Coiteux and the late Jacques Daoust. Nothing like this this year. The recruits were unknown and fragile.
According to the party’s constitution, a vote of confidence must be held at the next congress, before November 2023. Mme Anglade has two options: advance this vote to prevent his rivals from organizing or buy time by hoping that the needle moves in the polls.
In the immediate term, however, it must learn from this historic defeat. Nearly three out of four Liberal MPs now come from Montreal.
The party becomes the political vehicle of anglophones and allophones, but even they are moving away. Fortified castles are weakening. For example, in Robert-Baldwin (West Island), the Liberal vote has dropped by 23% between 2018 and 2022.
In short: things are bad everywhere with everyone.
The reviews of M.me Anglade should, however, keep this in mind: apart from her, no one had lifted a finger in 2020 to become a chef. The establishment had maneuvered to find an adversary and organize a real race. But their choice, Alexandre Cusson, withdrew when he saw his imminent defeat.
Who could do better today? I mean: an identifiable human being with an interest in the position? So far, I can’t find any.
In the caucus, two deputies stood out, Marwah Rizqy and André Fortin. However, the first will soon give birth and the second had passed his turn at the last race for family reasons. There is no indication that they would be available or necessarily superior to Mme England.
It is whispered to me that Marc Tanguay would hide his ambition for the interim leadership badly. He behaved as a team player during the campaign. But on Monday evening, he expected that position to become vacant.
Liberals remotely mention the name of Pierre Moreau, without knowing by their own admission if this 64-year-old former minister is interested. Others are watching Ottawa wondering if a future loss to Justin Trudeau might make a minister on his team available.
This is all terribly hypothetical…
The mutineers should learn from the federal conservatives. They changed their leader often and quickly, with a losing result in 2019 and 2021.
Mme Anglade must also think of Pauline Marois. After her defeat in 2008, the leader of the Parti Québécois hung on. She then obtained 93% support for her vote of confidence. But a few months later, the putschists were active enough to weaken it and lead to a heartbreaking minority mandate.
In other words, nothing is ever won.
The Liberals must first recruit parliamentary staff and rebuild the party. Local associations were left to their own devices during the race. Their funding is also weak. They rely mainly on $100 checks instead of also soliciting small, recurring monthly donations.
During the last legislature, the Liberals were divided into three clans: those who had been elected under Jean Charest, under Philippe Couillard in 2014, and the recruits who arrived in 2018. Mme Anglade had a very imperfect grip on this disparate band.
This time, the caucus has only two deputies elected before 2018. The absence of a wise old man like Pierre Arcand will be sorely felt.
More than ever, M.me Anglade will need a compass to orient his party. What good are liberals in an era where the independence debate is put on hold? How to defend against a nationalist federalist adversary? How to actualize the seven liberal values of Claude Ryan?
On the one hand, we urge Mme Anglade to reconnect with moderately nationalist Francophones. On the other, he is asked to return to the fundamental values of the party, such as liberalism. The balance is precarious…
Robert Bourassa can serve as inspiration. During the debate on the Victoria Charter in 1971, he refused Canadian multiculturalism, in the name of Quebec specificity. In 1988, he used the notwithstanding clause to maintain unilingual commercial signage in French. This was, however, after the judgment of the Court. And not before, preventively, like the Legault government.
Still, Quebec has changed since then. In 2019, some Liberal activists advocated Canadian-style multiculturalism. According to them, Quebec interculturalism would amount to an attempt at “assimilation”.
It is in this context that Dominique Anglade’s reflection will take place. And the ticking is already beginning to be heard.