the three scenarios for the XV of France to retain its title

France no longer has its destiny in its hands. The Irish, who fell for the Blues and undefeated after four games in the 2023 Six Nations Tournament, simply have to win against England on Saturday to be crowned and obtain a first Grand Slam since 2018, the fourth in their history. But the XV of France can still keep hope.

To have a chance of keeping its crown, France must immediately meet two conditions: win against Wales (Saturday 3:45 p.m. live on France 2 and france.tv) and then see Ireland lose to to England (6 p.m.). The bonuses will then be preponderant (scoring four tries grants an offensive bonus point, losing by seven or less grants a defensive bonus point). Three scenarios are possible for France to achieve the double. Here they are.

Scenario n°1: the quietest

The XV of France must reap the victory (4 points) with the offensive bonus point (four tries scored), and Ireland must bow without validating any bonus (a defeat by more than seven points and having scored three tries or less). France would thus cap Ireland on the post with one more point in the standings (20 against 19).

Scenario n°2: the puzzle

In the event of a victory for France and a defeat for Ireland without any bonus on either side, the two teams would be perfectly tied in the standings (19 points each). It is then the general difference which is taken into account to decide between the two teams.

Before the last day, Ireland has a difference of +20 points compared to France (66 to 46). The XV of France will therefore have to fill this gap, taking into account the difference in score between Ireland and England.

Clearly, France will have to score the maximum number of points against the Welsh and then hope for a rout of the Irish at home. Not won: Jonathan Sexton’s teammates have not conceded a defeat of more than 12 points against the XV de la Rose in the Tournament since 2012 (30-9).

Scenario n°3: the nervous breakdown

It’s an almost improbable scenario that could cause a nervous breakdown for all Blues supporters. If France wins with the offensive bonus against the Welsh, and Ireland loses with only one of the two bonuses (offensive or defensive), the two teams will be tied with 20 points. It is therefore, there too, the general difference which will decide between the two rivals.

On the other hand, if Ireland loses with the two bonuses, it is finished. It will be crowned regardless of the result of the Blues, since it will have 21 points while France can only count 20 maximum on Saturday evening.