Never have the results of a Swedish election been so close. On Sunday, the Swedes went to bed late at night not being quite sure the numbers couldn’t change. It is indeed by a tiny majority that the right-wing bloc led by the moderates (conservatives) and its leader, Ulf Kristersson, would have beaten the Social Democratic Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, to the post on Sunday. According to the last counts completed late on Sunday night, but which could change this week when certain advance votes from abroad will be counted, the right would win in a pocket handkerchief with 49.7% of the votes against 48. .8% for the left block. This would grant him 176 seats against 173 out of the 349 in the Swedish Parliament. A majority of barely two deputies!
All evening, the left bloc led by a very narrow margin until, around midnight, the trend reversed and the right took the lead by an equally narrow margin. Around one o’clock in the morning, the Electoral Authority had to resolve to declare that the final result would not be known before Wednesday.
The leader of the moderates, Ulf Kristersson, who would become prime minister if these results were confirmed, said he was ready to create an effective new government. “We are the party of unity and now Sweden needs unity,” he said. After deploring “the excessive political polarization”, he thanked his opponent, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, and affirmed that “when necessary, we have shown that we are capable of sharing the same vision”.
“While the outcome of this election is unclear, I can confirm that the Social Democrats scored well. […] It is clear that social democracy is strong,” said the Prime Minister.
Democrats on the rise
Among the moderates, feelings were divided between the hope that the right-wing bloc would remain in the lead and the disappointment that it was no longer the country’s third party. For the first time, the moderates (19%) are snatched second place by the Swedish Democrats (20.7%). This populist party, whose main program consists in combating immigration, therefore becomes the leading right-wing party. Although he should not be part of the government, he could play a decisive role in the new Parliament.
It is not without reason that going on stage on Sunday, its leader, Jimmie Åkesson, looked like a winner. “We are a great party today,” he declared before asserting that, if Ulf Kristersson becomes prime minister, he will demand that the Democrats take part in the government.
If the result of this election is not clear, I can confirm that the Social Democrats have made a good score. […] It is clear that social democracy is strong.
These results confirm the steady progress of his party which entered Parliament barely ten years ago. A party he took in hand in 2005, determined to erase the memory of some of its founders who had spawned with National Socialism. During the campaign, no less than five candidates were dismissed after some of their past statements had been unearthed.
The Democrats recorded the strongest increase (3%), a significant percentage in a country where the position of the parties varies relatively little from one ballot to another. For the first time in this campaign, Ulf Kristersson broke the “cordon sanitaire” that had always surrounded the Democrats. Even if he seems to rule out their participation in government, he said he was ready to negotiate their support in the House. A decision which also caused the departure to the left of the small Center Party (6.7%).
This campaign will have been the scene of a real shift among the Social Democrats on the question of immigration. For a month, the Prime Minister has campaigned on the slogan “A Sweden that looks as much like Sweden as possible”. Breaking with twenty years of all-out openness to immigration, she promised to fight the galloping crime that the country has been experiencing since the massive influx of migrants from 2015. A theme taken up unanimously by the three major Swedish parties, even if it is with various inflections.
As usual, the Swedes went massively to the polls. Queues had been visible in Stockholm for several days, since in Sweden early voting is very popular. Sunday morning, when the polls opened, more than two million people had already voted. In this country where the participation in the elections remains exemplary, all day Sunday, the queues were important. Many polling stations closed late because of a new procedure requiring voters to choose their ballot in secret before retiring to the voting booth.
Even once the result of the vote is known, the Swedes are not close to knowing the composition of their new government. The winner will indeed have to begin long negotiations with the parties of his bloc in order to agree on a program and the composition of the government. In 2018, it took more than four months (129 days) to achieve this.
However, these negotiations promise to be difficult, in one bloc as in the other. The Prime Minister’s campaign against immigration crime has not gone down well with the Left Party or the Greens. Moreover, Sweden’s recent accession to NATO may be unanimously accepted by the main parties, but it is rejected by the Left Party (the former communists). This should exclude its participation in any government.
On the right, the Liberals have reaffirmed their radical opposition to any participation by Democrats in government. Unless the difficulties encountered in each bloc push the two major parties to form a “big coalition”, as in Germany, a perspective put forward in the major daily Dagens Nyheter. The answer in several weeks.
This report was financed thanks to the support of the Transat International Journalism Fund.The duty.