The surge in contamination linked to the Omicron variant can happen in France “in the next two or three weeks”, said Thursday, December 16 on franceinfo Mahmoud Zureik, professor in epidemiology and public health at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines and director of Epi-Phare, while the United Kingdom is facing an outbreak contaminations linked to the Omicron variant. 88,376 new cases of Covid-19 were identified in 24 hours, a record since the start of the pandemic for the second day in a row.
franceinfo: How to explain this epidemic outbreak in the United Kingdom?
Mahmoud Zureik : The first reason is the particularly high transmissibility of Omicron. English data suggests that it is three to four times more transmissible than Delta, while Delta was much more transmissible than the Alpha variant and Alpha was even more transmissible than the original virus. There is also a lot of contact between Africa and Britain. And above all there is the ability of Great Britain to quantify the number of cases in a valid way. They’re screening to see if it’s Delta or Omicron. And they do sequencing. These data, they do it on the largest scale in the world, around 20% of cases. In France, it is rather around 4%. So they make 4, 5, 6 times more than France. Hence the figures in France, probably largely underestimated.
Does what is happening in the United Kingdom foreshadow what will happen to us in France?
Very probably. Last year, the Alpha variant was in December-January in England. It happened to us in March-April. The Delta was in June in Great Britain, it happened to us in July. And there, there are all the impressions that this is happening to us with probably, given the transmissibility, a less important shift. Next month or even the next two or three weeks.
Can the third dose slow the outbreak of this variant?
I think you should not hesitate to take the third dose as soon as possible, especially for the elderly and people with weakened immune systems. The studies are clear on the subject. One vaccine with two injections is not enough. The messenger RNA vaccines, Pfizer and Moderna, protect a little bit from infection. But on the other hand, a booster dose protects both against infection and also severe forms.
Do you think shortening the time between the second dose and the third dose?
The European Agency has validated the three-month delay between the second dose and the booster dose. Why not. But how do you go about vaccinating more than a million, two million people a day? There are also logistical issues that are difficult to overcome. And above all, it is the elderly, people at risk who must be given priority to receive the third dose in order to protect them.