Is Macron crazy? Or blinded by his pride? Or an incredible Machiavellianism? Does he really believe that by provoking early elections and an ultra-short legislative campaign, he has a chance of turning in his favor French public opinion which, 70%, even 75%, rejects him?
According to a theory heard in circles at the Élysée, the French president may have thought that the unexpected dissolution would create such disarray among the oppositions, with barely a few days to submit candidacies, that they would find themselves paralyzed and prevented .
It was said that the left, divided between multiple tendencies ranging from the extreme of La France insoumise (LFI, which flirts with communitarianism and tolerates radical Islam in the suburbs, recruiting electoral support there) to refocused socialists (around personalities like the very European Raphaël Glucksmann… and François Hollande, the first ex-president to return to run for a seat as a simple deputy), cannot get along as it did in 2022. Among other factors of fierce divisions : Ukraine and Gaza.
Macron also hoped that he would implode the right, by putting it to the test on the age-old question: “The far right, acceptable or not? To ally with her or not? »
With a National Front becoming a National Rally and whose headliner, Marine Le Pen, has watered down her father’s fascist wine, the temptation to unite has become strong. Especially since, in the France of 2024, three quarters of the entire right… it’s the National Rally!
The big trend is there.
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Macron’s bet seems to have failed on the left, whose lightning coalition (LFI-communists-Greens-socialists) has, in the blink of an eye, produced unique candidates in the 577 constituencies… under the ambitious, even presumptuous, name of ” New Popular Front.” But all this could just be a façade of unity.
On the right (or what remains of it, outside the RN), there was a collapse of the two formations belonging to this category. Zemmour’s ultra-right exploded when his lieutenant Marion Maréchal decided to join the RN.
As for the “Gaullist” republican center right called LR (Les Républicains), crushed in the European elections with 7%, it has been torn apart all week. In a bad vaudeville, we saw Éric Ciotti, president of the party, announce his support for Marine Le Pen and barricade himself in the party’s offices… while the tenors of the party, remaining “republicans”, refused such an alliance with the party. devil.
Important and symbolic detail: in this episode, we see the last vestiges of Gaullism disappear body and property. By merging into a nationalist, anti-migrant, eurosceptic movement now hegemonic on the right. Not sure that de Gaulle would appreciate it…
But is Macron benefiting from all these political upheavals?
A survey by the firm Opinionway (nice French name), released on Sunday, divides voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections into three blocks: Renaissance (pro-Macron centrists) 20%, New Popular Front (NFP) 25%, National Rally 33%.
We can rule out the scenario of a Renaissance victory. Despite its facade unity, the NFP, whose total assets, even if it were to seek out all the lost “miscellaneous left” votes, can hardly reach 30%.
There remains the possible, even probable, victory of the National Rally. ” Victory ” ? In any case, first place.
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The RN, majority or minority? That is the question.
Curiously, for lexical reasons of their own, but perhaps also for reasons of incompatibility of character… the French do not know the expression “minority government”. Yet that is exactly what they have had since 2022, with Renaissance having lost the absolute majority won five years earlier. The paths of the two-round single-member ballot are impenetrable and can contain surprises.
Plausible is the scenario of an RN in the lead on July 7, but below the 289 seats of the absolute majority. In this case, could the unity of the pro-Macron, the left, plus a few right-wing “Republican” deputies who survived the disaster…could it block the RN and form a majority? It is doubtful whether with such a coupling, a “sacred union” is possible.
Which would result in a Parliament without a majority, with three irreconcilable blocs, and a Macron more reclusive than ever in his Élysée palace.
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Every president has a trait that ultimately marks the end of his career. In the case of Mitterrand, it was a question of the cult of secrecy, of his “Florentine” way of conceiving politics as an incessant series of maneuvers and dirty tricks – regardless of programs or convictions. In the end, he found himself trapped by his hidden past during the German occupation.
In the case of Nicolas Sarkozy, “Mr. Bling-Bling”, it was the taste for luxury and money, the ostentation of the nouveau riche who had reached the top and were proud of it.
In the case of Macron, it is the solitude of power. Few people around him knew he was going to disband. Even the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, learned about it at the last minute. He decided alone, with a handful of advisors. Gesture of despair, dictated by impulsiveness? Crazy bet on an RN government which would collapse and then be discredited for the 2027 presidential election?
France has accustomed us to a surge when its fundamental values are at stake. We can expect much higher electoral participation than in the European elections (50%). This is also what Macron is banking on, who, on the brink of the abyss, is perhaps thinking of the Napoleon of the “Hundred Days” (his last period in power), of the ultimate challenge to “save the homeland”. But after the Hundred Days… what’s next? Waterloo.
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