“The situation is becoming more and more difficult militarily” in Mali, with jihadists who “advancing towards the capital” Bamako, said Michel Galy, geopolitical scientist and specialist in sub-Saharan Africa, on franceinfo on Monday August 15, while the Elysée announced the departure from the country of the last French soldiers of the Barkhane force.
>>Mali: from Serval to Barkhane, we summarize nine years of French military engagement in the Sahel in ten key dates
franceinfo: Why this withdrawal of French troops, announced several months ago? Does France consider the Islamist movements defeated?
Michael Galy: Not at all, but there is a new front: Mali’s military government, resulting from a coup, which is increasingly anti-French and even anti-Western. This government obtained the departure of the Barkhane force from Mali.
Did Emmanuel Macron have no other choice?
Somehow. The French president has chosen to favor Niger to redeploy the Barkhane force in new forms. And since this Barkhane force is present in five countries, he has also chosen to reduce the workforce, to negotiate new forms of cooperation or military establishments with coastal countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Togo and Benin. But it is not won, because anti-French opinion is rising throughout West Africa and in particular in the Sahel.
What were France’s mistakes during these nine years of Operation Barkhane?
There were a lot of blunders, first with a certain arrogance on the part of the French leaders. They had the desire to control the political calendar, as when President François Hollande had imposed the date of the presidential elections, and a desire to marginalize the national armies, which is difficult to bear in any country. This is the lesson learned by President Emmanuel Macron. However, the situation is escalating between public opinion and the French leaders.
Has the situation changed a lot in nine years since the launch of Operation Barkhane?
It’s a complicated question. The Malian forces have become more professional, whereas they were completely non-existent at the end of 2012. But the jihadists have progressed: at the time, they mainly held northern Mali with the separatists or Tuareg separatists. Now, they are established in the center of Mali with in particular the Katiba Macina group. And they are progressing towards the capital. So the situation is becoming more and more difficult militarily.
Would you say that Mali can once again become a terrorist stronghold in the coming weeks?
Indeed. The jihadist groups are aiming, as at the end of 2012, for what provoked the first French intervention Serval: the conquest of the capital. There have been attacks near Bamako. And they attack all over the place, in Mali but also in Burkina Faso, where the situation is even more difficult.