With winter comes the snow walking season. In politics, a “walk in the snow” means major reflections on the future of a political career. This alludes to Pierre Trudeau, who had decided to resign on February 29, 1984 after going for a walk one stormy evening.
Of course, it’s too early to think that Justin Trudeau will go for a walk in the snow this winter. After all, the last federal election was only 14 months ago, and the Liberals have a deal with the NDP expected to vote with the government until 2025.
Especially since the Prime Minister seems well in the saddle. His recent testimony before Judge Paul Rouleau on the advisability of having recourse to the Emergency Measures Act seems to have reassured all those who thought that Justin Trudeau did not really want to remain prime minister for very long.
In fact, Mr. Trudeau seems keen to take on new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the next election, even though current polls put him ahead and by 2025 he will have been in power for 10 years, which which is, in Canada, the life cycle of a government.
This is therefore not a sign that he could leave power, which his ministers and the opposition parties are watching. It’s the idea that he might not go for a “walk in the snow”.
His situation somewhat resembles that of Brian Mulroney at the end of his second term after almost nine years in power. He was convinced, despite the polls, that he could beat Liberal leader Jean Chretien, whom, incidentally, he had little esteem for.
It took until he reached the fifth year of his second term to realize that he was not going to be able to turn the tide. He finally chose to announce his departure on February 24, 1993.
Mr. Trudeau therefore has time. He will have plenty of time to see and hope for a change in public opinion. But his decision to wait a little longer before deciding on his future could provoke other “walks in the snow”.
There are prominent members of its Cabinet who see opportunities now that may not be there in two or three years.
Thus, it is an open secret that the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, would like to succeed Mr. Trudeau.
But everything also indicates that if he decides to seek a new mandate, she could well look elsewhere. She is said to be interested in the post of Secretary General of NATO.
Another minister with ambitions is that of Innovation, Science and Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, who is said to be considering a Liberal leadership campaign. Let us ask the question: in which capital?
Obviously, he would like to succeed Mr. Trudeau. But an unwritten rule, more than a century old, will work against him, that of alternating between a French-speaking chef and an English-speaking chef. The last time an exception to this rule was made was in 1880 when Edward Blake succeeded Alexander Mackenzie.
This same rule would work against the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, if she decided to run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC).
In the meantime, the name of François-Philippe Champagne appears more and more often in the internal discussions of the Liberal Party of Quebec. He has already said he is not interested, but they have resumed with a vengeance since prospective candidates like Pierre Moreau have closed the door.
Mr. Champagne certainly has the desired profile. A francophone who comes from a region, the Mauricie, and who has spent a lot of time traveling around Quebec. With a well-developed economic profile. And at 52, he’s in his prime.
One thing is certain, none of the potential candidates has a résumé that comes close to that of François-Philippe Champagne.
Obviously, the reconstruction of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) will require a lot of energy from its new leader. That’s good, Mr. Champagne has plenty to spare. It’s not for nothing that his nickname is the “Energizer Bunny”.
Obviously, the PLQ has long been shopping at the Liberal Party of Canada to find a leader. The last time it was Jean Lesage. But if it were possible for the PLQ to accept a federal Conservative like Jean Charest, Mr. Champagne should not cause too much trouble.
One thing is certain, at the rate at which withdrawals are going in the race for the leadership of the PLQ, the pressure on Mr. Champagne will resume even more strongly in the coming weeks. That does not guarantee that he will want to make the leap, but it is certain that many in the PLQ already see him as a leading candidate.