the scenario of a Russian victory in Ukraine worries the countries neighboring the Kaliningrad enclave

More and more leaders in Europe now dare to imply: a Russian victory in Ukraine would have direct consequences on the stability of all of Europe. Concern is particularly concentrated around the Russian enclave region which is located between Poland and the Baltic countries.

Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed this on Tuesday January 16 during a press conference: “We can’t let Russia win”. Like other leaders, the French president sees the security of Europe, particularly that of the entire Russian neighborhood, depending on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine. While for a long time, no one mentioned the scenario of a Russian victory, it is now seriously being considered almost everywhere in Europe.

A few weeks ago, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, spoke of a victory “heavy with threats”, implying that a Russian victory would encourage Vladimir Putin to unleash his troops further West to set up a conflict in the heart of Europe. This little distressing music comes back more and more and it is difficult to know if this alarmist speech serves above all to shake up public opinion, or if the risk is very real.

Panic movement in Sweden

We are especially worried in eastern Europe. Poland, the Baltic States and, since last week, the Swedish authorities, are considering a Russian invasion. In Sweden, the Minister of Civil Defense and the Chief of Defense Staff have publicly stated that the threat of war “on Swedish territory” was very real. Panic ensued throughout the country. Stores were even stormed to obtain survival equipment.

The opposition then accused the government of “spread fear” without concrete reason. The Minister of Civil Security, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, therefore found it necessary to make a small clarification: “No one said war was imminent, but what we mean is that we now have the opportunity to strengthen Sweden’s preparedness. The uncertainty in the world around us does not hasn’t been this big in a long, long time.”

It must be said that nothing really justified the first statements by the Swedish authorities. Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the threat indicator has not changed for the country. Of course, anticipating a conflict, organizing defense, all this is part of the responsibilities of leaders, but going so far as to inform the population can jeopardize the stability of the country.

Remobilize opinion

The German press also refers to a possible breakthrough by Russia towards Europe. Please note, only one article appeared in the tabloid Bild claims to rely on a classified defense secret document – a single source – describing an escalation between NATO and Russia. This source claims that Russian troops are planning to connect their Kaliningrad enclave via the Suwalki corridor, between Poland and Belarus, as early as 2024.

If the document is authentic, it is NATO’s job to imagine all the scenarios. But the leak of such strategic details, in such a heated context, does not seem very serious. This content, now accessible to all, fuels paranoia, but above all recalls the importance of a Ukrainian victory over Russia, at a time when Westerners are beginning to lose interest in the war in Ukraine.