They will have to fulfill their promises, discipline their troops and skillfully calculate their alliances: the federal political parties begin the new pandemic year shortly after an election campaign that did not really change the forces present in Ottawa, but which gave them new own challenges. Here’s what to expect for 2022.
Liberal Party of Canada: a marathon to fulfill its election promises
The Liberal Party of Canada begins the year 2022 at the head of another minority government that has a lot of work to do to deliver on its many election promises. The third Trudeau government, however, has the advantage of the lack of appetite of its rivals, and of the population, for calling a new election.
To end the year 2021, the Prime Minister made public the mandate letters prepared for each of his 38 ministers. Their content was, essentially, a synthesis of the liberal electoral program which promised a whole series of laws for the first 100 days of the mandate, that is to say for February. The Prime Minister’s office considers that “it is quite a good start” in this regard, confides a source, since four promised bills have already been tabled, three of which have been adopted.
However, there is still a lot of work for the Minister of Canadian Heritage, Pablo Rodriguez, who will have to activate at the beginning of 2022 to ensure the sharing of revenues between the giants of the Web and the Canadian media, according to the model of Australia. The Prime Minister also asks him to table “as soon as possible” a bill to counter online hatred. It is also incumbent on Minister Rodriguez to take up the torch from his predecessor, Steven Guilbeault, in the file of modernizing the Broadcasting Act to subject the giants of the Web to it. The bill, entitled C-10 in the last Parliament, drew strong criticism from the Conservative opposition, which saw it as an attack on freedom of expression online. The heavily modified text finally died on the soap opera when the election campaign began. Finally, the Minister of Heritage will at the same time have to reform the Copyright Act, invent a pandemic aid program specific to artists at a cost of $ 60 million and help independent bookstores compete with Amazon.
During the year 2022, the Liberal government will also have to resubmit its reform of the Official Languages Act, reform employment insurance, appoint a “federal defender of the right to housing” and find a way to put an end to it. to all public aid to the oil and gas sector. He will have to do this while avoiding criticism from the Conservative opposition, which has excessive government spending and domestic inflation as its hobbyhorse. In a minority situation, other political intrigues will emerge in 2022. Ephemeral alliances will be created with one or the other of the opposition parties, which may demand concessions in exchange for their support.
Bloc Québécois: maintaining the delicate electoral balance
The balancing act that the Bloc Québécois must engage in in Ottawa is not new: defending the positions of the Quebec government without systematically taking sides with the Coalition futur Quebec rather than the Parti Quebecois, its sister party. However, this dynamic will be all the more perilous as the election campaign approaches next fall.
The Bloc Québécois is torn between a CAQ with resolutely nationalist demands and a PQ which remains a long-standing ally, but whose support is faltering today. The defense of certain Caquist measures was already raising eyebrows in the sovereignist ranks. For example, a motion by the Bloc Québécois defending Quebec’s right to unilaterally modify the Canadian Constitution to include Quebec as a nation, as provided for in Bill 96 from the government of François Legault. The PQ, however, denounces this legislative initiative, which it considers to be facade nationalism. This kind of tension is likely to multiply in the months leading up to the October 2022 election. Although the two sovereignist parties have a long tradition of electoral assistance, the Bloc Québécois is well aware that the majority of its voters vote in fact… for the CAQ (63%, against 22% who support the PQ, revealed a Léger poll last October). “In a pre-electoral context, from the moment we make a request from the Government of Quebec, we automatically make a request from the CAQ. And that raises the risk of harming the Parti Québécois, ”summarizes a Bloc source. The separatist party will therefore have to seek, above all, Quebec consensuses to defend in Ottawa, rather than solely Caquist requests.
The Bloc will also have to, like its federalist rivals, still try to succeed in the heart of an endless pandemic.
The files of health transfers or the improvement of Old Age Security for seniors aged 65 to 74 (excluded from the increase announced by Ottawa for those over 75) will be able to benefit from the health context, which confirms their relevance. according to the Bloc.
But the climate emergency, gun violence in Montreal or even the reform of the Official Languages Act, which must be reintroduced by the government of Justin Trudeau, are all subjects that are a little more difficult to debate. the shadow of a devastating fifth wave of COVID-19 cases.
New Democratic Party: Helping Those Who Fall In The Cracks Of The System
Inflation and the rise in the cost of living are not subjects exclusive to the right, intends to demonstrate the New Democratic Party (NDP) this year, while proposing its own solutions. The progressive party will hound the government on the lack of affordable housing in the country and on the flaws in pandemic aid programs, in particular, to force the federal government to “help people” a little more.
Almost 200,000 more people supported the NDP in the 2021 election compared to the 2019 election, and its number of seats in Parliament fell from 24 to 25. The party failed to boost its membership, however. Quebec, which still has only one elected: Alexandre Boulerice (Rosemont).
Since the Liberal government was re-elected as a minority government again in September, it still needs the support of at least one opposition party in Ottawa. The NDP appears to be a natural partner in fulfilling Justin Trudeau’s social and environmental promises. This fall, however, rumors of an alliance between the Liberal Party and the NDP for the functioning of Parliament were denied by both parties.
The NDP has also opposed Bill C-2 on pandemic aid, failing to maintain a universal benefit such as the PCU or the PCRE. The government had to come to an agreement with the Bloc Québécois to pass its law.
This strategy will be maintained, say NDP strategists: no question of supporting bills that reduce direct assistance to people during the COVID-19 pandemic. The NDP wants to stand up for the most vulnerable Canadians, such as those who cannot work and who no longer have access, outside of confinement, to emergency benefits, which have become much more targeted since the fall. They risk finding themselves in financial difficulty between now and the implementation of the major reform of employment insurance, promised for 2022, which must include self-employed workers and artists.
From the point of view of the NDP, the public health crisis that the country is going through has exposed the flaws in the country’s health systems, so that the federal government must come to their aid. Regardless of whether it is more the province’s jurisdiction, the NDP intends to follow the Trudeau government on its promise to hire 7,500 new doctors and nurses, among others.
On a more personal note, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will first become a father in 2022.
Conservative Party of Canada: stay in the saddle and quell the discontent
“This will be the Year of Truth for Erin O’Toole,” a conservative source says of her leader.
Since the Conservative Party came second in the September ballot – winning two seats less and failing to defeat Justin Trudeau’s government – Erin O’Toole has drawn criticism from within. His popularity is also undermined among conservative voters. Only 59% of them had a favorable opinion of Erin O’Toole at the end of November, against 81% at the beginning of October, revealed Angus Reid before the holidays. This is an even lower popularity rate than Andrew Scheer’s on the same date in 2019, when he finally gave up the chieftaincy.
Hoping to calm the discontent within her team, Erin O’Toole commissioned a comprehensive report this fall to learn lessons from the last election campaign. The document, prepared by former MPs James Cumming and Christian Paradis, will be given to parliamentarians at the start of the year.
The conclusions will perhaps moderate the discontent of some, or on the contrary revive it.
The detractors of Erin O’Toole within the caucus are in the minority. But they managed to make themselves heard regularly this fall and at the same time make headlines. A petition by Senator Denise Batters calling for a vote of confidence in the leader to be pushed forward was rejected by the party, as was a similar initiative launched by a member of the National Council since expelled. A few MPs had also threatened to create a mini -aucus to defend the freedom of unvaccinated Canadians. A handful of others openly criticized their leader’s position with regard to the Quebec State Secularism Act. Mr. O’Toole ended up calling on them to speak in camera in caucus or not at all.
Despite these pitfalls, the Conservatives believe they have managed to stand up to Justin Trudeau’s minority government by chasing it on economic issues, such as the rate of inflation, the rise in the cost of living, the labor shortage. implementation or control of public finances.
The strategy will remain the same in 2022. But, as in 2021, the challenge will once again be to criticize the government and impose its own priorities in the midst of a pandemic that is far from running out of steam. And by the time of the vote of confidence planned for the moment at the 2023 convention in Quebec, Erin O’Toole risks having to continue to manage the dissidents, while waiting to establish her leadership for good.
Green Party of Canada: turning the page Annamie Paul
We will know this spring who wants to take the reins of the Green Party of Canada after the brief chaotic passage of its leader Annamie Paul, marked by internal conflicts and an electoral result more than disappointing for its activists.
In office since late November, interim leader Amita Kuttner, appointed for six months, has made it his mission to “heal” the Green Party for the next leadership race. The last race, which went rather unnoticed in 2020, crowned the black and Jewish lawyer Annamie Paul, a candidate then considered “centrist”. During the year 2021, this leader suffered, or caused, according to her detractors, a major internal conflict which caused the departure to the Liberals of one of the party’s three deputies. The “worst period of [sa] life, ”said Mme Paul, was marked by an attempted no-confidence vote and party lawsuits against her and an electoral defeat in her constituency, where she spent most of the campaign. Annamie Paul then quietly remained chief nearly two months after announcing her resignation.
His temporary replacement, Amita Kuttner, who is also the first trans person to become leader of a federal party, wishes for 2022 to re-establish bridges with the Quebec wing of the Green Party and defend the French language. In the meantime, its main challenge will be to recover the image of the party defending the environment and the climate.