“Russian forces are in an extremely delicate position”analysis Tuesday, October 4 on franceinfo General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the review National Defensewhile Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed progress in the evening “powerful” of his army in southern Ukraine, referring to “tens” of recovered localities. According to Jérôme Pellistrandi, the evolution of the situation testifies to the logistical efficiency of the Ukrainian army, as well as its agility, particularly in terms of intelligence. Even if Russia still has the means to respond.
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franceinfo: Should we speak of the beginning of a debacle for the Russian army?
Jerome Pellistrandi: It’s still a bit strong as a term but it must be recognized that for several weeks, the Russian forces have been in an extremely delicate position. They are in a defensive position and no longer seem able to regain the initiative against Ukrainian forces which are highly motivated and which are accumulating tactical successes, whether in the north, in the Kharkiv region or with the recapture of the city. of Lyman, as in the south. The dynamic is on the Ukrainian side.
What can explain these setbacks of the Russian army, which is however established in particular in the region of Kherson for a long time?
The war is much longer than expected and planned. It is clear that the Russian military authorities find it difficult to engage in these long-term conflicts. The other question is: what is the morale of the Russian troops? They have been under attack for weeks from the Ukrainian forces, who are very motivated. Once past the shock of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and the defensive phase that followed, we could see that the Ukrainian command had become much more agile. Of course, this is only made possible because there is American and Western aid, whether for intelligence or logistics. The intelligence loop is very short: very little time separates the moment information is collected in the field and the moment it is processed by the command posts. Tactically, the Ukrainian army is capable of being extremely mobile and inflicting very severe casualties on Russian soldiers. We are witnessing, on the one hand, the collapse of a Russian system, which was still based on the Soviet model, and, on the other hand, the emergence of an agile system which is inspired by Western models and partly American.
Does the Russian army have the means to respond?
Certainly, it lost very many tanks and combat vehicles. But it still has significant reserves. And then, Russia is part of a long time, perhaps already considering that the war will continue beyond the winter. It has this strategic depth that Ukraine does not have. We can draw a historical parallel with what happened during the Second World War.
“In the first months, when the Wehrmacht of Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union, there was a rout. But after several months, there was a real burst under Stalin.”
General Jerome Pellistrandiat franceinfo
So we have to be careful of what will happen in the weeks and months to come.