“It is unachievable in the short and medium term, it would be a huge military effort”assures Olivier Kempf, director of the strategic cabinet La Vigie and associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, Friday April 22 on franceinfo, while a Russian general affirmed that Russia wanted to take the “full control of Donbass and southern Ukraine.”
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franceinfo: Russia says it is ready for a humanitarian truce on the Azovstal site in Mariupol. Is it because she suffers too many losses there?
Oliver Kempf: Not necessarily. It means above all that she no longer wants to devote too much effort to it. Now it’s a matter of putting up barbed wire, plugging all the openings, and then waiting for those inside to come out. For me, it is more a question of saving fighters so that they can rest because it was difficult for them and then to reintegrate them on other fronts, in particular on the Donbass front.
A Russian general says Russia is aiming for “full control of Donbass and southern Ukraine”. Can we believe this statement or should we take it with caution?
It is likely that this translates a grand strategy or grand goals of Russia into its grandest dreams. That being so, it would first have to complete its conquest of the Donbass, finally cross the Bug River which is in Nikolayev, go and take Odessa, which is an even bigger city than Mariupol, and finally it is going to make the connection with Transnistria. So there is still a long way from the cut to the lips. That said, Russia holds a large part of Donbass. And then, it has the entire left bank of the Dnieper, from Kherson to Mariupol, so it already has its territorial continuity with Crimea. Going as far as Transnistria, I imagine in the wildest dreams they may have that in mind, but it is unachievable in the short and even in the medium term, it would be a huge military effort.
So what explains this statement?
First hypothesis, that of awkwardness. He was not a first-rate general, Rustam Minnekayev comes from the central region, he has nothing to do with the objectives, he said something without it being calculated. This is the most likely hypothesis. The other possible hypothesis is calculation. That is to say, if I start saying that I am going to put pressure on the side of Nikolayev and Odessa, with moreover renewed strikes that we have been observing since this morning on Nikolayev, well, I am forcing the Ukrainian adversaries to keep troops in the area, knowing that two days ago we saw detachments of troops coming from Odessa and heading east. It may be a calculation to ease the Ukrainian pressure in the East, to finally disperse the forces just by the magic of the verb.
May 9 is approaching and it is on this day that Russia celebrates its traditional “Victory Day”. Do you think Vladimir Putin will want to declare victory in Ukraine then and therefore the fighting will be over?
The date of May 9 is only in the mouth of Westerners, it is not in the mouth of Russians, even if May 9 is an important date for Russians since it is the date of the celebration of the victory on the Third Reich, therefore on the Nazis of the Second World War. Yes, there will be a great speech. Yes, there will be a parade, a parade. Yes, of course, Vladimir Putin will say that he has achieved his goals. However, this does not mean that he must finish the war and the operations by May 9. I think it will last after May 9, unfortunately.