the RN’s strategy to obtain an absolute majority

The National Rally is trying to win as many seats as possible in the National Assembly in the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday. Can Jordan Bardella really afford to refuse Matignon if he only gets a relative majority?

Having come out on top in the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally is battling to try to snatch an absolute majority in the second round, on Sunday 7 July. Some 289 seats, that is the RN’s objective, alone or with its allies from Ciott. It has already pocketed 39 deputies, it still needs 250. In theory, the 300 potential triangular races should have helped it achieve this objective. Except that the republican front that is being put in place is complicating its task.

The presidential majority has clarified its strategy, Emmanuel Macron recalled on Monday that left-wing voters voted for him twice in the presidential election to block Marine Le Pen. Gabriel Attal called on the Macronist candidates who came in third place to withdraw. As a result, on Monday, dozens of left-wing or Macronist candidates, including many outgoing Renaissance MPs, withdrew in favor of the Republican candidate best placed to beat the far right. Cases of three-way contests with an RN candidate in the lead in the first round should be very rare, we will know on Tuesday at 6 p.m., when applications close.

The RN president stated before the first round that he refused to go to Matignon if he only obtained a relative majority. An argument that of course aims to mobilize his voters, but he no longer repeats it so clearly now. Several elected Le Penists, such as Louis Alliot or Sébastien Chenu have even conceded that with a relative majority, the RN would probably agree to form a government. Firstly because if it is missing less than thirty seats, the RN hopes to poach them from among the future LR deputies. And then to shirk so close to the goal, to refuse power when the far-right party has been chasing it for 52 years, this could be misunderstood by a section of its voters. The RN repeats that the situation in the country is dramatic, that there is an urgent need to act, the party’s historic slogan is “Le Pen quickly!”. It is therefore difficult to shirk. Especially since 2022, with only 250 deputies, neither Élisabeth Borne nor Gabriel Attal have shirk their responsibilities.

There remains the hypothesis of a lack of a majority in the Assembly and the specter of an ungovernable country. A risk that Gabriel Attal tries to dispel by sketching the outlines of an improbable alternative majority bringing together Republicans of all stripes. In the event of a deadlock, Marine Le Pen already has a target: she will demand the resignation of Emmanuel Macron at the risk of further aggravating the political crisis.