the RN list of Jordan Bardella well ahead in voting intentions, Raphaël Glucksmann three points behind Valérie Hayer

According to the Ipsos poll for franceinfo and “Le Parisien” published on Saturday, Jordan Bardella clearly comes out on top in voting intentions for the European elections on June 9.

franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of opinion at a given moment. A poll is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also known as a “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error.

The RN list led by Jordan Bardella for the European elections of June 9, 2024 is well ahead in voting intentions, at 32%, according to the Ipsos poll for franceinfo and The Parisian published Saturday April 13.

With a third of voting intentions, the RN list is relatively stable over one month (+1 point). Far behind, the Renaissance-La République en Marche, Modem, Horizons and UDI list, led by Valérie Hayer, is credited with 16% of the votes, down two points over one month. The gap is narrowing with the list carried by Raphaël Glucksmann (Socialist Party and Public Place) which gains two points, to 13% of voting intentions.

Behind this trio, the lists La France insoumise by Manon Aubry and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts by Marie Toussaint are at 7%. Manon Aubry remains stable, while Marie Toussaint loses 1.5 points in one month. François-Xavier Bellamy who is on the LR list is credited with 6.5% (-0.5 points) and is on par with Marion Maréchal for Reconquête who however gains 1.5 points. The PCF list led by Léon Deffontaines totals 3% of voting intentions (-0.5 points).

63% assure that their choice is final

According to this survey, two thirds of those questioned (63%) assure that their choice is final. It is the Renaissance and National Rally voters who are the most certain of their ballot (81% for Renaissance and 80% for the RN). Two thirds of LFI supporters are sure of their choice (63%). And six out of ten voters for Raphaël Glucksmann (60%) demand a definitive choice.

The rest of the lists present see a more versatile electorate. If the PCF can count on 55% of certain voting intentions, Reconquest can only count on 46% of voters who will not change their minds. They are 40% among Les Républicains. And Marie Toussaint for EELV can only trust 34% of voters who are sure of their choice.

But an uncertainty hangs over this election: participation. According to this survey, 43% of those questioned intend to vote. That’s one point less than a month ago. In the 2019 European elections, participation stood at 50.1%.

Among the themes that will count in voters’ voting choices on June 9, it is purchasing power which comes out on top among the motivations of those questioned, at 54%. The health system is cited by 36% of respondents. Immigration is the third motivation for the French to put a ballot in the box.

Next come the subjects of environmental protection (cited by 24% of respondents), the security of property and people (21%), the school system and education (18%), or even the terrorist threat ( 17%). International subjects such as France’s place in Europe and in the world or the war in Ukraine are only cited by 12% of those questioned as a motivation in their choice of vote.

A “real dynamic” for Jordan Bardella

Guest, Saturday on franceinfo, the general deputy director of the Ipsos institute, Brice Teinturier believes that the National Rally benefits from a “truly dynamic.” Voting intentions for Jordan Bardella are very high “in all age groups”. Jordan Bardella “beginning to make a breakthrough among executives”assures Brice Teinturier who concludes: “it is identified as the anti-Macron vote”.

Regarding the position of Raphaël Glusckmann, the deputy general director of Ipsos believes that he “First of all, there is a whole section of left-wing voters who, during the presidential election, voted for Mélenchon but who, particularly for his positions on Ukraine, returned to Glucksmann. And then there are center-left voters , who were on Emmanuel Macron, and who are leaving Emmanuel Macron for Glucksmann, in particular because of national politics, such as pension reform. There is a redistribution of cards in the space of the left. The balance of power internal to the bloc. of the left is evolving, rather in favor of the PS.”

Methodology: Ipsos survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien on voting intentions for the 2024 European elections carried out from April 10 to 11 on a representative sample of 1,500 people registered on the electoral lists, interviewed via the Internet.