Despite the recent turbulence on the stock markets, Finance Minister Eric Girard does not foresee a recession in Quebec next year.
Mr. Girard believes that the rise in interest rates by the Bank of Canada, the US Reserve and other central banks will have an impact on financial assets and, consequently, will slow down the economy.
However, the Minister believes that the objective of reducing inflation through these rate increases should avoid the worst for Quebec. He expects to have a clearer idea of the effect of these increases by the end of the year.
“What is important is what we will know at the end of 2022, he said before going to the council of ministers on Wednesday. We’re going to have higher rates, it’s important that inflation has started to come down at that point, that’s going to allow us to avoid a recession. »
Despite everything, Mr. Girard remains optimistic for the Quebec economy.
“The most likely scenario for 2023 is not a recession,” he said. The probability of a recession is around 35%. We are twice as likely to have good growth in 2023.”
The major US and Canadian stock indices have plunged in recent days, anticipating interest rate hikes, notably from the US Federal Reserve, to fight inflation. On Wall Street on Wednesday, the major indexes were up.
Further details will follow.