The legislative elections will take place on Saturday September 30 in Slovakia. Former Prime Minister Robert Fico, leader of the populist and pro-Kremlin Smer-SD party, is well placed in the polls.
Until now, Slovakia was a bit of an exception in Central Europe compared to its neighbors, Poland and Hungary with their nationalist and conservative governments. During the previous elections, the 5.5 million Slovaks had elected in quick succession a liberal president, a former environmental activist, then an anti-corruption party. And in 2020, after the elections, Smer, this social democratic party which flirts with the far right, was driven from power.
But everything could change. First of all, there is immense disappointment from the outgoing government. But above all, in Slovakia, eyes are focused on the south of the country. It is an area crossed by more and more migrants. They arrive from neighboring Hungary. Most of them cross the border illegally and leave the country within 48 hours. But the numbers have exploded. The police are talking about 25,000 people this year, while in 2021, this figure rose on average to 2,500. Which obviously gives arguments to some.
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Robert Fico could get closer to Viktor Orban’s Hungarian far right
Among the candidates, the one who stands out is former Prime Minister Robert Fico. He did not hesitate to go to the Hungarian border to accuse the government. It was early September. The 59-year-old candidate had some shocking comments on site. “Even God doesn’t know who among the migrants is a terrorist or who carries an infectious disease”, did he declare. Already in 2016, Robert Fico campaigned on the rejection of immigration. It hadn’t worked. But this year, the man we call a fine politician and to whom we attribute luxury tastes has much less inhibition. He continues to become radicalized. He has become more conspiratorial than ever. He is also mobilizing with those disappointed with the European Union. He displays virulent anti-Americanism, also poses as a defender of Christian values, and opposes what he calls this LGBT ideology. And above all, he chants his support for Russia in all his speeches. And this time, it’s effective. His party has been in the lead for months with 20% of voting intentions.
And if he wins these elections, it will probably be a threat to Slovak democracy, but also to the geopolitical balance in Europe. Robert Fico has promised that if he is elected, his first measure will be to cut off all military aid to Ukraine. The former Prime Minister is riding on this discontent among Slovaks, where the inflation rate is the highest in the euro zone. He blames it on economic sanctions against Russia, the country’s gas and oil supplier. And then it also relies on the pro-Russian feeling of part of the population. However, Slovakia helped Ukraine a lot. She sent her old fighter planes, she provided ammunition and put an end to it. Slovakia would join Hungary, the only European country that refuses aid to kyiv. Viktor Orban could therefore find a new ally in the European Council.