Quebec has 68,000 more unemployed than before the first wave of the pandemic in March 2020. Despite this labor force that is in principle available, the number of vacant positions has exploded in Quebec, from 147,000, or 4.2% of total jobs, in the first quarter of this year to 279,000 in September, or 7.3%.
Before the pandemic, the number of vacant positions, which employers already complained about, was 3.5%. It is therefore, by rounding off, a progression from single to double.
The phenomenon is North American. Our neighbors in Ontario have also seen a sharp increase in the number of job vacancies, which rose from 3.4% to 5.6% of total salaried jobs. In the United States, the number of positions also rose sharply, from 4.5% before the pandemic to 7.1%, according to the latest data.
The explanations are not obvious. For the economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, it is a surprise, as he wrote in one of his recent chronicles of the New York Times. Thus, labor shortages persist despite the fact that there are five million fewer jobs than before the pandemic. He notes that American workers are quitting their jobs at an all-time high, which is an indication that they expect to find new jobs without too much difficulty, while wages are rising.
It would be what he calls the “great resignation”. South of our border, the phenomenon cannot be explained by the financial assistance that workers received from the government during the pandemic. These allowances ended in June in several states and in early September across the country without a significant increase in the participation rate of the population.
Krugman quotes Arindrajit Dube, then labor market economist, who argues that, historically, low-wage American workers underestimated how bad their jobs were. Low wages – the minimum wage in the United States is $ 10 an hour or less in most states – poor working conditions, starving vacations and benefits are their lot. It is not uncommon for these workers at the bottom of the ladder to have more than one job, the only way for them to have a somewhat decent life.
However, this wave of resignations could be the consequence of a vast questioning on the part of employees during the pandemic, argues Krugman.
The labor market in Quebec is certainly very different. In the United States, which some would like us to emulate, the poor are more miserable and the low paid are often poor and treated poorly by relentless employers who for years have had the right cards in their game.
In Quebec, federal government assistance to employees through the Canada Emergency Benefit (CEP) did not end until October 23. As companies seek to resume operations at the same pace as before the pandemic, it is therefore possible that the PKU may have something to do with the sharp increase in vacancies seen recently: workers are delaying their return to work. In addition, older workers approaching retirement – they are particularly numerous in Quebec – may have decided to get ahead of it after months of inactivity during the pandemic.
The latest job vacancy data should be interpreted with some caution as they need to be confirmed. But while many workers have been able to think about what they want to do with a living, they may be more selective. This can snowball, as in the United States: the more jobs there are, the more employees are demanding and quit their jobs in order to improve their lot, which pushes the number of jobs up. available.
Before the pandemic, Quebec employers were already at bay. In his latest economic and financial update, the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, states the objective of adding 550,000 people to the workforce by 2036, despite retirements. The Legault government will have to deploy a variety of measures, the results of which cannot be instantaneous.
The scarcity of labor is not a phenomenon that is unique to Quebec, reminds us economist Pierre Fortin. The United States has been dealing with this problem for years, and so has Ontario. However, changes are faster here, and the pressure exerted on the labor pool will make it difficult for companies, but also for the public sector, to adapt.