The vice president, less popular than Joe Biden, has been climbing in the polls since June. She now seems best placed to obtain the Democratic nomination.
It was said “erased”she is now the favorite. In just 24 hours, Kamala Harris has become the likely future candidate of the Democratic Party in the American presidential election. The 59-year-old vice president received, on Monday, July 22, the support of six governors – some of whom were considered potential rivals – in the race for the White House. On Sunday, Joe Biden plunged the United States into uncertainty by announcing that he would not run for a second term, after weeks of controversy over his age and health. In passing, the outgoing president presented his number 2 and running mate as the one to whom he wanted to pass the torch.
If Kamala Harris appears today as the natural heir to Joe Biden, more than one did not imagine her being able to settle into the Oval Office. The vice president had “a complicated start to the mandate”recalls Ludivine Gilli, director of the North America Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. In 2021, Joe Biden entrusted her with the sensitive issue of illegal immigration, “by asking him to treat the problem at the root”.
The issue has cost Kamala Harris dearly. She herself comes from an immigrant background – her parents are of Indian and Jamaican origin – the “VP” has traveled to Central America, calling on migrants from these countries to “not coming” in the USA. “This failed trip set the tone”says Alexis Buisson, independent journalist and author of Kamala Harris, the heiress.
A difficult interview on NBC News in June 2021 and a tendency to get lost in endless rambling sentences, described as “word salads” by conservative media outlets like Fox News, have further weakened it. “She was also accused of being a bad manager, because there was a high turnover of her teams in the early days.”points out Alexis Buisson. These missteps earned him being “withdrawal”adds Ludivine Gilli.
While some criticized him for being “invisible”Kamala Harris “found his marks” during the second part of her mandate, according to Alexis Buisson. Over the months, the vice-president has also “multiplied meetings with foreign leaders, gaining international experience”that “cultivated his relationships with the Democratic Party’s activist base, hosting activists from diverse backgrounds at the White House”the journalist explains. She also played a key role in the Senate, where Republicans and Democrats are tied, by giving her side a decisive voice in a record number of votes, the New York Times.
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But it was her commitment to reproductive rights that marked her tenure as vice president. “After the Supreme Court reversed its decision on abortion rights, she took up the issue through a series of trips to college campuses.”decrypts Ludivine Gilli. She thus became “the voice of the Biden administration” on this subject which is decisive in the vote of Democratic voters.
In the urgency of a campaign that has only a hundred days to reorganize, Joe Biden’s number 2 now seems essential. The profile of this regular of “firsts” – the first American of South Asian descent elected to the Senate, the first woman to accede to the post of vice president – gives her an advantage over her potential rivals. “She was a California attorney general, elected to Congress for three years, vice president…”lists Ludivine Gilli. The other names circulating are those of governors, certainly influential in their state and the party but who do not have the experience, nor the notoriety, of Kamala Harris at the federal level.
“Her identity as a black woman also works in her favor. If she were to be pushed aside [par le Parti démocrate]this decision would be perceived as sexist and racist by some voters.”
Alexis Buisson, journalistto franceinfo
Another advantage: the Californian can use the $95 million in donations to support Joe Biden’s candidacy. As the American media outlet Politico explains, these precious campaign accounts were already registered in the name of the vice president, as the head of state’s running mate for the November 5 election. Their transfer to another candidate would be more complex, and would have to go through a third party organization. In a country where campaign spending is exploding ($14 billion in 2020 according to public radio NPR), Kamala Harris represents a fundraising machine: she raised an additional $81 million in the 24 hours following the announcement of her candidacy, her campaign team reported.
The vice president seems, so far, the most likely to beat Donald Trump. “Early voting [pour la présidentielle] “With the election starting in September, there is an urgent need for Democrats to rally behind a candidate who has a chance of winning.”points out Alexis Buisson. However, the vice president saw her popularity rise again after Joe Biden’s failed performance during a debate against the Republican, according to the poll aggregator FiveThirthyEight.
She is now hot on Donald Trump’s heels in opinion polls. But these figures, taken from surveys conducted before Joe Biden’s withdrawal, should be taken with a grain of salt. ““We will have to see how the opinion polls will evolve now that Kamala Harris’s presidential nomination is becoming more likely.”, tempers Ludivine Gilli. “Ask voters about hypothetical duels”as was the case again last week, can distort the situation.
“It is possible that Kamala Harris will initially benefit from a ‘bonus’ in the opinion polls. But it remains to be seen whether her nomination will actually be decided by the Democratic Party, and how the first weeks of her campaign will unfold.”
Ludivine Gilli, historianto franceinfo
Because Kamala Harris’ candidacy is not unanimous, especially among key electorates for her party. While Joe Biden was appreciated by workers and unions, his vice-president’s ability to mobilize “The vote of ‘blue collars’ and rural areas who feel neglected remains to be proven”notes Ludivine Gilli.
Among African Americans, “fracture” exist about the Californian, adds Alexis Buisson. “There is a whole older generation who adore him and are devoted to him. But the younger ones, those who have been affected by the Black Lives Matter movement, are more reluctant.”he continues. The reason is her reluctance to intervene in cases of police violence when she was California’s attorney general.
Kamala Harris nevertheless has a “sympathy capital” with the Americans, according to Alexis Buisson. “She is a mixed-race woman, at the head of a blended family, who succeeds professionally despite the ambient sexism… She is the image of the current American population.” Faced with a Donald Trump who is barely younger than Joe Biden – 78 years old against 81 – the 59-year-old Democrat also seems to be “more in tune with youth”the journalist believes.
The announcement of her candidacy has also provoked a wave of memes and coconut emojis, a symbol of her support, on social networks, notes ABC News. Her supporters have flooded the platforms with video montages reproducing images of her dancing or her key quotes. “Today, the majority of young Americans no longer get their information from traditional media but from TikTok: this visibility is very important for Kamala Harris”says Alexis Buisson.
His profile also forces conservatives to change strategy. “Republicans focused their attacks on Biden’s cognitive abilities. Cand argument no longer holds, analysis Ludivine Gilli. During the debates, she will have a good response and Donald Trump may be put in difficulty by the fact that it is a black woman who is responding to him.” If he “gives free rein to his usual invectives”and risks sexist or racist remarks, the billionaire could trigger a strong movement of support among Democratic voters. “While Joe Biden has generated little enthusiasm, Kamala Harris could successfully mobilize the base through her identity and capitalize on the White House’s record.”insists Ludivine Gilli.
What to grab some swing statesdecisive pivotal states in the presidential election in November? “The balance with his or her running mate could be decisive”argues the historian. Observers are already talking about “a ticket with a moderate elected official from a state pivot” to the electorate “more rural” or worker, notes Ludivine Gilli. Like Josh Shapiro, centrist governor of Pennsylvania, “popular even with Trump supporters”. The program will also count. “She must put forward strong proposals to convince young people to vote Democrat.”insists Alexis Buisson.
“This is the moment that Kamala Harris has been waiting for: to convince the American people and show her capabilities.”
Alexis Buisson, journalistto franceinfo
“The first weeks of his campaign could swing opinion one way or the other.”warns Ludivine Gilli. Especially since the “VP” still has several steps to take to reach the White House, starting with winning her party’s nomination. A majority of the delegates responsible for designating the candidate have already declared their support for her, according to a count by the AP agency. But the Democratic National Committee must meet on Wednesday to specify the voting process, which will take place this year under unprecedented conditions. With perhaps the key, in the words of Alexis Buisson, the opportunity for Kamala Harris to “moving from Joe Biden’s shadow into the light.”