The Pension Orientation Council (COR), often accused of being too optimistic in its hypotheses, meets Thursday with a new president: the economist Gilbert Cet. He wants to instill a new methodology in view of the next report to be published at the end of June.
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The Retirement Orientation Council (COR) is the body which makes forecasts on the future of the pension system by sifting through life expectancy, birth rate, employment rate, etc. Made up of unions, employers, qualified personalities and administration directors, the COR is responsible for enlightening the government on the state, particularly financial, of the pension system and the need or not for reform.
Each year, the COR produces a reference report which should help guide political decisions. The next edition is scheduled for June. Often in the past, COR has been accused of being far too optimistic in its assumptions. Gilbert Cet, the new president, is determined to rectify the situation, even if it means throwing a spanner in the works. It offers, for example, scenarios with much lower productivity than today. In particular a central scenario with hourly productivity which would increase by only 0.7% on average per year.
Unions fear new reform
Productivity is our collective efficiency at work and this parameter is crucial. If it is lower, this means that it takes longer than today to produce, to maintain growth, and that contribution receipts will therefore slow down. This is not good news for financial balances of the pension system. This Productivity has slowed significantly in recent years. Because there are many French people in employment, but who produce less than before. This is explained by aging of the population and by the fact that there are also many more work-study students.
Fear of unions East that the next report provides a pretext to initiate a new reform. Because already in 2023, with a productivity growth scenario of 1%, the COR warned that the pension system accounts would remain in the red, so with 0.7%, it will be worse. After the long conflict against the increase in the starting age from 62 to 64 last year, the unions have no desire to get back into a standoff with the government. Especially since the unions already have many areas of tension with the executive, between the supplementary pension kitty, and the unemployment negotiations which must end next week.