“It’s a first hope”, welcomed on Monday August 1st on franceinfo Gautier Le Molgat, deputy director general of Agritel, a consulting firm specializing in agricultural and agro-industrial markets, after Ukraine resumed its grain exports for the first time since the beginning of the Russian invasion six months ago, in accordance with an international agreement to alleviate the global food crisis. But it remains “largely insufficient to truly reassure importing countries”.
franceinfo: Is the departure of this first shipment of cereals from the port of Odessa a positive signal?
Gautier Le Molgat: It is a thaw after five months of immobilization in the ports, therefore a first positive effect after the agreement which was freshly signed ten days ago. This is a first full-scale test to test the route which has been validated by the Ukrainian and Russian authorities, under the cover of Turkey and the UN. It is a first hope. However, it is only a boat. Today, this is largely insufficient to truly reassure all the importing countries.
Will it take a long time for maritime traffic to resume in the Black Sea as before the war?
Indeed, it will take time. We can highlight Ukraine’s ability to really put its export capacities back into action. This boat has been waiting in port for five months. There are other boats that have been waiting since the beginning of the conflict to resume activity. Before Ukraine regains the export activity, capacity and pace it had before the conflict, it will still take a long time. Now, we will also have to manage the flow of new boats to pick up the goods in the ports. And above all, to see Ukraine really come back, you also have to ask yourself the question: the goods currently in stock in the ports are old crops. The goods harvested this year are in the interior areas. We will have to transport this new harvest to the port areas. And there, it is still a long way because it will be necessary to review the port and railway installations. This country is still in conflict, so in a situation that is far from easy logistically.
What is the state of the wheat market at the moment?
Since the first announcements of an effort to open the ports and set up a corridor, a few weeks ago, the market has run out of steam compared to the high of April. Today, we remain at price levels around 340 euros per ton in France. These are high levels and, compared to the same period last year, they are about 150 euros higher. So we stay in the international market on high levels. Of course, this return of Ukrainian exports is a good signal. On the other hand, as long as the market is not completely reassured in relation to this corridor, we will remain on high price levels, whether on the European or American markets, even if the signal, on the announcement of this first boat , generates a small relaxation of prices to salute this effort.