“We can hope for strong international pressure so that this coup does not go to the end”, explained Monday, October 25 on franceinfo Jérôme Tubiana, researcher, specialist in Sudan, while the armed forces detain on Monday, October 25 the Sudanese Prime Minister, Abdallah Hamdok, arrested after refusing to support this putsch, reported the ministry of Information.
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franceinfo: What is the situation?
Jérôme Tubiana: Hopefully this coup will not go to the end and that there will be strong international pressure so that Sudan does not follow bad examples, like Egypt and Chad. Sudan was seen as a fragile model, but one of a negotiated transition between civilians and soldiers.
What does the army hold against civilian leaders?
The army has other supporters who blame civilians for their own internal divisions. They are very divided between political parties with different agendas which sometimes make the population more in search of ministerial positions than real change. The Prime Minister has done what he can, he has had some success, to try to rally support around him, but the economic reforms he has undertaken have made the crisis rather worse. This is also what civilians are accused of.
“The military has big economic interests and they fear the civilian government is trying to put it in order.”
Jérôme Tubiana, researcher, specialist in Sudanto franceinfo
They also fear the commission that is in charge of fighting corruption, and some fear justice efforts for crimes committed in 2019 and in Darfur.
Was such a situation foreseeable?
There were warning signs, including relatively recent but growing tensions between civilians and the military on various issues. There were unprecedented demonstrations that demanded a change in civilian government without necessarily having the military take full power. There were clashes between protesters defending civilians and smaller numbers demanding a change of government. But one could not foresee that this scenario would happen even if everyone feared it.
What evolution can there be?
There are really more than two camps and many actors who have no interest in there being a return to the Bashir regime or an avatar of it. We can hope that this will not go to the end, that there will not be violence, that there will not be a confrontation between demonstrators or a violent repression by the military regime. We can hope that the international community will exert very strong pressure to avoid a real military coup.