With 18 months to go until the next presidential election and 8 months from the start of choosing delegates to the two-party conventions, everything indicates that the race for the nomination is practically over before it even begins. It will therefore be a rematch – which two-thirds of Americans do not want – between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
It is rare for a president not to run for a second term. The last time was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, when his party turned against him because of the Vietnam War. But in the case of Joe Biden, many thought that because of his age, 80, he would only serve one term. That’s what 70% of Americans want, according to a recent NBC poll.
But the main interested party believes that he is still capable of fulfilling his charge for another term which would end when he is 86 years old.
Of course, Mr. Biden has to wrestle with some negative perceptions, like the fact that he often seems to stumble over words. But let’s note that it’s not because of age, it’s because he fights a stutter that has plagued him since adolescence.
It is certain that the question of the age of Mr. Biden will be one of the issues of the election. But it will be rather complicated for Mr. Trump to make it a big issue: he is only four years younger than his rival and he likes to repeat these days that “life begins at 80”.
Mr. Biden’s approval rating has been remarkably stable over the past year and is around 43%, which is comparable to what Donald Trump had at this point in his term (he lost) and to Barack’s Obama (he won).
But Democratic strategists take these polls with a grain of salt: Many progressives tell pollsters they’re unhappy with Biden, who isn’t progressive enough for them. But they certainly won’t vote for Trump just yet.
It is often said that the country’s economic situation outweighs any other factor in a presidential election. Biden’s record isn’t that bad, inflation is at 5%, but it’s down. The unemployment rate is at 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years. Even better, it looks like the US could avoid a recession that until recently seemed certain.
There was a time, at the beginning of the year, when one would have thought that the Republican Party was going to choose a younger and less divisive candidate than Donald Trump. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, easily re-elected last November, seemed the new favorite.
But this one has gotten into all sorts of trouble over the past few months as it has tried to become more conservative than its rival and wage war on the movement woke which served him rather badly. The adoption of a law – the most restrictive in the country – prohibiting abortion after six weeks and his merciless war against Disney, one of the largest employers in his state, will have harmed him. You can’t win against Mickey Mouse!
During this time, Donald Trump garnered support and his base consolidated so much so that he appears today as the inevitable candidate for the Republicans. Even his impeachment for fraud in New York State will have served him well, with many Republicans agreeing with his argument that the charges were essentially partisan.
But Mr. Trump is not done with justice. He could be accused as early as this summer of trying to overturn Georgia’s last election result – there’s a recording of him asking Georgia’s election official to “find 11,780 votes” for him, just enough to win this state.
Another investigation could also lead to charges of inciting a riot in connection with the January 6, 2021, rampage at the Capitol.
The danger for Mr. Trump is that one accusation always works, but two or three could put off many voters.
Mr. Trump’s other problem is the one that arguably cost him the 2020 election: the female suburban electorate, who got him elected in 2016, turned their backs on him four years later.
In 2024, it is the question of abortion that should play against the Republicans. As we saw in the elections last November, the decision of the Supreme Court to revoke the right to abortion established in 1973 was decisive in a number of tight races. And the mobilization on this issue does not seem to weaken, especially since the Republican states continue to adopt very restrictive laws on abortion.
In a rematch that could be as close as the previous election, that could well tip the scales for Joe Biden.