Former Governor General David Johnston is due to reveal on Tuesday whether he thinks the federal government should launch a public, independent inquiry into foreign interference in the country.
In the wake of allegations that China interfered in the last two federal elections, in 2019 and 2021, experts consulted by The Canadian Press believe that a public inquiry would ensure complete government transparency on the subject.
It would also give Canadians an opportunity to realize how serious this interference is, which they believe needs to be tackled.
Johnston, who has been appointed “independent special rapporteur” on the issue of foreign interference by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is expected to comment on whether to hold a public inquiry in his first report, which he will unveil Tuesday noon at a press conference in Ottawa.
Rather than launch a public inquiry himself, Mr. Trudeau called on Mr. Johnston in March to bring a “non-partisan” perspective to the issue of foreign interference — a choice that opposition parties have called of “too little, too late”.
But since then, the pressure has only grown on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, as new allegations of interference, including Beijing’s intimidation of a Conservative MP and his relatives in Hong Kong, surfaced in the media.
“The way the debate has evolved over the past few months has really deepened partisan divisions in the country,” observes University of Ottawa professor Artur Wilczynski.
“In my view, all of this has not helped to ensure a strong defense of Canadian democracy and has not resulted in an effective government response to threats of foreign interference. »
Wilczynski, who has spent more than 30 years in public service working on foreign policy, intelligence, security and defense issues, believes a public inquiry would help refocus the conversation on how the government works. foreign interference and how Canada should act to deal with this threat.
An issue that does not date from yesterday
The signs that outside nations are trying to interfere in political activities in Canada were clearly visible even before the current controversy.
Officials in Canada were aware that the 2016 US election was subject to attempted foreign interference and for years the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has expressed growing concern in its annual reports.
But a series of reports published since last fall by the Globe and Mail And Global Newswhich quoted anonymous sources within the security agencies, revived the political conversation on this issue.
“Even though government officials have often wanted to talk about foreign interference, the only thing that has worked to force a real conversation about it has been media leaks,” Wilczynski said.
When an item of Global Newspublished in November, raised that China allegedly financed the campaigns of certain candidates through an illegal network of donors, Mr. Trudeau and his colleagues said that they did not know which specific candidates had received support from Beijing.
But the government has begun to show signs that it is reframing its approach to China.
A week after the allegations were published, Trudeau’s office said the prime minister raised concerns about “interference” during a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit.
A few days later, Canada unveiled its new Indo-Pacific strategy, in which it devoted part of its $2.3 billion investment to the fight against foreign interference.
And towards the end of November, Brenda Lucki, who was then commissioner of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, confirmed that a police investigation was underway into numerous allegations of foreign interference.
Despite these measures, the government has been under increasing pressure to launch a public and independent inquiry, especially when the Globe and Mail revealed in February that the Chinese government had sought to harm conservative politicians in the 2021 elections because they were seen by Beijing as hostile to its regime.
A public inquiry and nothing else
When Mr. Trudeau announced, in early March, the creation of the post of “special rapporteur”, as well as the launching of investigations by the Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security of the House of Commons and the Office of oversight of national security and intelligence activities, the soup was already hot for the government.
His political opponents considered any measure that was not a public and independent inquiry to be insufficient. A parliamentary committee even passed a non-binding motion asking the government to initiate one.
“It created enormous political drama for the Liberal government and put it on the defensive, certainly,” says Wesley Wark, who is the senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation.
“The Liberal government has struggled to paint a convincing picture of its actions and policies to respond firmly to foreign interference. He clearly did some things, but it wasn’t enough. »
According to Professor Wilczynski of the University of Ottawa, recent allegations that MP Michael Chong and his relatives in Hong Kong were threatened by a diplomat from the Chinese consulate in Toronto have had a real impact among the population. .
“For Canadians, it crystallized in a very solid way the magnitude of the threat,” he said.
It is in this context that Mr. Johnston must now make his recommendation, at the end of an investigation where he had access to all the relevant information, according to the federal government.
In a public inquiry, formal hearings would give a voice to election officials, political parties, parliamentarians, provinces, communities and other actors, Wilczynski argues.
Mr. Trudeau has already said he would respect Mr. Johnston’s recommendations, including if he recommends a public inquiry.
It’s a heavy burden to bear, notes Mr. Wark.
“Mr. Johnston has been pushed to the fore in this case. And it is he who will have to brave the storm. »