Hopes were still dim on the eve of the first meeting scheduled for Tuesday in Moscow between UN Secretary General António Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to end the war in Ukraine.
This face-to-face is expected, although denounced Sunday by the Ukrainian government. But its scope remains most uncertain as on Monday the Kremlin continued its strikes aimed at taking over southern Ukraine, again blocked any agreement that would facilitate the evacuation of civilians holed up with fighters in the metallurgical complex. besieged Azovstal (according to kyiv), in Mariupol, and began the destruction of railway infrastructure in the west of the former Soviet republic to weaken it.
“This direct, high-level meeting could give all or nothing,” said in an interview with the To have to John Packer, expert in international conflict resolution at the University of Ottawa and director of the Center for Research and Education on Human Rights. “Now, as the interview occurs so late [depuis le déclenchement de l’agression russe], the options for António Guterres are now very limited, and his chances of success, very reduced. »
Disapproval in Kyiv
On Sunday, two senior officials of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government publicly disapproved of the meeting between the Kremlin strongman and the UN secretary general, saying that Mr. Guterres was “not really” authorized by Kyiv to negotiate a peace agreement in the midst of the ongoing invasion.
“It’s not a good idea, this trip to Moscow”, declared the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential cabinet, Igor Zhovkva, in an interview with the program Meet the Presson the waves of the American network NBC.
In the process, on the rival network CBS, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Chmyhal, expressed his skepticism on the potential for diplomatic breakthrough of such a meeting. “A lot of leaders from countries in the civilized world, from international organizations, have tried to have this discussion,” he said. But it seems that the Russian Federation and [Vladimir] Putin is not interested in negotiating. They are interested in other things. They are interested in the genocide of the Ukrainians. They are interested in the creation of migration crises in Europe and in the rest of the world. They are interested in creating food crises, energy crises,” he added.
After a stop in Turkey on Monday, where he met President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, António Guterres is expected in Moscow on Tuesday for a “working meeting” and lunch with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He will then be received by Vladimir Putin, according to the press release released by the UN last Friday. The document mentions the holding of discussions on “humanitarian aid to the Ukrainian people” and makes a vague reference to “the efforts of the Secretary General to end the war in Ukraine”.
On Thursday, the Secretary General is due to travel to Ukraine for a working meeting, this time with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. He will also be received by Volodymyr Zelensky.
A precious independence
“If these approaches do not bear fruit immediately, they could be useful in the near future”, explains in an interview Professor Peter Wallensteen, researcher at the Kroc Institute, of the University of Notre-Dame, in Indiana, specializing in the analysis of international conflicts. “There will come a time when Russia will see the need for a third party to put an end to this war, and the UN Secretary General, by virtue of his independent status enshrined in the United Nations Charter, will be able to act in that Sens. »
It was this independence, moreover, which enabled the office of Secretary General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, in 1989, to put an end to the war in Afghanistan by helping the Soviet Union to withdraw from the country, or even by 1955, under Dag Hammarskjöld, to resolve the dispute between China and the United States over Americans captured by Mao’s regime during the Korean War.
Substantial negotiations and a “peace agreement” are still very far down the line. But, from a personal point of view, the Secretary General would do well to obtain
a concrete gesture.
António Guterres’ trip to Russia, then to Ukraine, comes the day after the publication in the wall street journal a scathing op-ed by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov accusing the United Nations of being nothing less than a “catalyst for war crimes” because of its inertia and inability to punish Russia. A message carried at the beginning of the month by Volodymyr Zelensky before the illustrious institution, to which he demanded to free itself from the influence of Russia or else to “dissolve” by admitting its impotence.
“It’s very hard to see how a simple conversation with Mr. Guterres could on its own change Russian policy and the course of the war in Ukraine,” said John Packer. But, of course, the Secretary General must try…even if Russia’s commitment to the continuation of the war is enormous. »
He adds: “Perhaps António Guterres could persuade Russia to discover its interest in making peace as soon as possible. Of course, substantial negotiations and a “peace agreement” are still very far down the line. But, from a personal point of view, the Secretary-General would do well to obtain a concrete gesture, such as a “truce on humanitarian grounds” or a commitment to enter into detailed discussions on talks and, more precisely, on a ceasefire agreement. »
In early March, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution demanding “that Russia immediately cease the use of force against Ukraine”. A call to end the conflict, legally non-binding, however reiterated several times thereafter by António Guterres. Without great range.
Since February 24 and the outbreak of the war, 13 million Ukrainians have been sent on the road to exile, of which 5.2 million have left the country, according to the latest count from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for the refugees. A conflict sustained in part by the apathy of Westerners, recently denounced in our pages the former president of Latvia Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga.
The European Commission also estimates that, to date, more than 6,000 war crimes and crimes against humanity have been recorded in Ukraine.