Tuesday’s vote on a text toughened by a compromise with the right is causing turmoil in the presidential camp, between resignations of ministers and rebellion among parliamentarians. Several voices are calling for a major change from January in order to quickly breathe new life into the government.
“I think it’s going to take a fresh start.” This is the observation made by François Bayrou, questioned on the hypothesis of an upcoming reshuffle, Thursday December 21. “All of this has been informed by what we have seen in recent weeks”, adds the boss of MoDem, at the microphone of Sud Radio, without elaborating further. In his sights: the political crisis caused by the chaotic adoption of the immigration bill. If the text passed the National Assembly, without recourse to 49.3 but with the votes of the right and the extreme right, the divisions caused by this sequence within the presidential majority ended up reaching the government. “I was very scared personally, I saw everything go wrong”says a ministerial advisor.
For a few hours, before the vote on Tuesday evening in the Assembly, the wildest rumors circulated in the mysteries of power. Everyone shakes up their networks. The left wing of ministers, shocked by the very tough text coming out of the joint committee, is fighting back. A dinner is organized in a hurry at the initiative of the Minister of Transport, Clément Beaune. Around the table, we find Pascal Vergriete, Minister of Housing, Sylvie Retailleau, Minister of Higher Education, and Roland Lescure, Minister of Industry. “It wasn’t a rebellious dinner, they just shared concerns”today tempers the advisor of a minister present that evening.
“We are on the verge of implosion”
Finally, it is the Minister of Health, Aurélien Rousseau, in deep disagreement with the text, who slams the door on Wednesday. The resignation of Sylvie Retailleau was rejected by the executive, we learned the next day. The Minister of Culture, Rima Abdul Malak, once a departer, refutes in a long text the rumors of resignation, while ensuring that “dispositions” Bill “offend his convictions”. Enough to deeply annoy the right wing of the presidential camp. “These ministers were misguided! They wanted to be brave, it’s pitiful. It’s the zero degree of politics”plagues a leader of the majority.
“When you pull out a gun, you have to shoot! If they are ashamed of this law, let them go!”
A leader of the majorityat franceinfo
The government is floundering and the presidential majority is struggling to heal its wounds. In the Assembly, Emmanuel Macron lacked around sixty votes on Tuesday evening. Deputies from the presidential camp abstained or voted against the text. At Renaissance, we prefer to procrastinate. “These are not divisions, but different opinions in a democratic group which has allowed freedom of voting”we assure the side of the parliamentary group. “There is no witch hunt, not one MP has slammed the door”, supports a minister. According to others, however, the tensions “did not fall back”. “Let the right wing put water in its wine; these deputies have not yet buried Macronismannoys a Renaissance elected official who voted against the text. They won a victory, but not the war, and we will fight… Internally, for now.”
In the opposite camp too, we assure that the episode will have consequences. “We’re going to move on, but the problem [de la division] remains. Just because metastasis doesn’t cause you pain doesn’t mean it doesn’t develop.illustrates a parliamentarian from the right wing, who is already imagining the picture for the 2027 presidential campaign. I think it won’t be easy to have Sacha Houlié [président de la commission des lois à l’Assemblée et tenant de l’aile gauche] and Laurent Marcangeli [patron des députés Horizons, parti d’Edouard Philippe] on the same stage to support the same presidential candidate.”
On the MoDem side, it is not much better. Among the centrist ally, “we are on the verge of implosion”, summarizes a deputy. Jean-Paul Mattei, the president of the group in the National Assembly, intended to vote against the bill, before abstaining. The tension, however, fell with the intervention of Emmanuel Macron, during a long two-hour interview in “C à vous” on France 5, Wednesday evening. “He took matters into his own hands”welcomes a ministerial advisor. “That it offends certain parliamentarians, that it offends ministers, that it upsets you, it’s legitimate“, recognized the Head of State regarding this text which, according to him, falls well within the “at the same time”.
Elisabeth Borne, “iron lady” or “micro-manager”?
But to relaunch this second term, the question of a new direction and new faces within the government remains unresolved. For this, should we thank Elisabeth Borne, who has been in office at Matignon for 20 months? The Prime Minister, who resisted repeated attacks from her Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin during the summer, retains supporters. Including on the right wing, after this sequence. A paradox for someone who comes from the left. “Firing her now would be nonsense, she won, even if it doesn’t come across like that in public opinion”greets a leader of the majority. She knew how to keep her cool in all circumstances and led the way.” Same enthusiasm from this ministerial advisor: “She wet the shirt, she went to the front, she’s the iron lady at Matignon!” On the government side, we are tired of these rumors of reshuffle which are coming back “every four months”. “She has a road map, she unfolds”underlined, before the vote, an advisor to the executive.
“Everyone gave Borne no more than three weeks, no one predicted this longevity with this ability to hold out. It is impressive.”
A ministerat franceinfo
But there are also many voices pleading, in the majority, for a new captain at Matignon. “It’s essential, Elisabeth Borne is no longer leader of the majority. Darmanin is submitting her resignation to the President of the Republic and not to the Prime Minister… We are among the crazy!plagues a majority executive. Elisabeth Borne has become a cabinet director, a micro-manager.”
The painful compromise found on the immigration bill remains in the throat of some of the troops. “She didn’t get a deal, we just crashed in front of the right”, continues this Macronist. The pill is all the more difficult to swallow for the left wing of the majority, long on the front line to defend the Prime Minister. “There is a huge disappointment on Borne. We are having trouble getting over it. She will no longer have the attentive ear of the left wing of the macronie”breathes a Renaissance MP who voted against the text.
“The incarnation defect has not been resolved”
In the event of Elisabeth Borne’s departure, different names are being put forward behind the scenes. Despite the snub of the motion to reject the bill that he brought before the deputies, Gérald Darmanin did not abandon his ambitions. The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, would not say no to a promotion. The name of Sébastien Lecornu, current Minister of the Armed Forces, also comes up insistently in conversations between advisors. Some also imagine a surprise and envisage the return of Jean-Yves Le Drian, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs – in the Philippe and Castex governments.
Beyond the fate of the head of government, many are demanding major changes. “In addition to Matignon, key positions, like Bercy, must change”wishes a majority deputy. “The government is bloated, there are too many people and everyone plays their part. partition. And several are playing solo with a view to 2027. We need more consistency”, demands a close friend of the head of state. “We need a new start. More political profiles, more attentive, more courageous perhaps too”explains Renaissance MP Ludovic Mendes. “The July reshuffle did not resolve anything, it was a marginal adjustment, but the lack of incarnation has not been resolved”pushes another Renaissance deputy.
“There is a general political weakness. We need to get rid of a good number of state secretaries. We need to step up our game in the cabinets.”
A Renaissance MPat franceinfo
Many of them are asking for a reaction from the President of the Republic, from January 2024, so as not to waste time. Especially since the European elections in June are coming quickly. “If we have a non-political head of the list like Stéphane Séjourné, we cannot have a Prime Minister of the same ilk. We need a reshuffle for the dynamics of the campaign”, estimates a ministerial advisor, who keeps an eye on the polls placing the National Rally well in the lead. For some, the incarnation must come from the Elysée. “This is the last fight of the President of the Republic, we must put him in the center of the arena, make him do a Bercy”estimates a close friend of the head of state.
“We must seek out the disappointed”
But as always, Emmanuel Macron, who remains “the master of clocks”, likes to take his time. “From what I hear, the president first wants to clean up his house, at the Elysée, to take over the architecture of his teamsconfides a ministerial advisor. Then, given what happened, everyone seems to agree on a reshuffle to start a new page in the five-year term.”
“We need to find ideas and fuel at all levels. We need to be disruptive and not just managerial.”
A ministerial advisorat franceinfo
After a year 2023 marked by pension reform and then by the debate on immigration, the government will have to tackle the end-of-life issue in particular. The casting of the possible reshuffle could reflect a change of line. “This could be an opportunity to ‘deal’ a contract with the oppositions who have shown themselves to be reasonable in the crisis, with a clear road map”puts a member of the majority on the table. “When the president speaks of unity, we must seek out the disappointed, those who felt betrayed by the immigration law. We need a profoundly social shift”, pleads for her part a Renaissance parliamentarian. At a time when the DNA of Macronism, the famous original “at the same time”, appears increasingly weakened, Emmanuel Macron will have to make clear choices to be up to date with “appointment” which he set for the nation in 2024.