The option of a televised confrontation between the head of state and the head of the main opposition group in the Assembly is on the table at the Elysée. But on the RN side, it is now estimated that it could not take place before September.
After debate between Jordan Bardella and Gabriel Attal, scheduled for May 23, will we soon see a television remake of the last two presidential elections between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen? For several days, the possibility of a debate between the head of state and the president of the RN group to the National Assembly, first relayed on Sunday by The galleryagitates the political sphere. “It’s a hypothesis that was put forward by others and by Marine Le Pen herself on April 21, so nothing really new”evacuates the entourage of the head of state.
Questioned by BFMTV that day, during a trip to Mayotte, the leader of the RN, who on Thursday May 16 was the guest of “L’Evénement” on France 2 (8:40 p.m.), opened the door: “Why not. (…) It wouldn’t pose any difficulty for me.” This “assumption”issued in the middle of the campaign for the European elections, is well under study at the Elysée. “It’s an idea that Emmanuel Macron has been toying with for a long time. It’s on the table”assures a close friend of the President of the Republic.
But since the interview of April 21, the positioning of the finalist of the last presidential election has evolved. The context is no longer the same today, assures Renaud Labaye, secretary general of the RN group. “When she has been questioned on the subject, the Prime Minister refused at the time to confront Jordan Bardella. That’s why she said she was ready to exchange with the president. Since then, the debate with Gabriel Attal was launched.”
The idea relaunched in recent days of a televised face-to-face with Emmanuel Macron annoys Marine Le Pen’s camp. “She Tfinds it contradictory to propose a debate presidential election while they constantly criticize us for nationalizing the debate, for evoking the role of the Europeans in the dynamics of the future presidential election, for talking about mid-term elections”, accuses those around him. The former president of the RN now proposes to compare their ideas after the Europeans and the Olympic Games. “I think it should take place in September, unless the president announces that if he loses [les élections européennes], he will proceed with a dissolution. So there, a debate can be justified”, she said Tuesday on BFMTV.
“It would be very useful if she could debate with the president at that time on the theme: ‘What will he do with the three long years that remain to him?'”, continues those around him. The Lepenist position immediately aroused sneers from the presidential camp. “There is one that is deflating, she is too afraid of losing feathers!”, accuses a minister, castigating a “Marine Le Pen who is afraid”. The speech is the same on the side of the parliamentary majority. “Marine le Pen is afraid to debate with him, because everyone will have their eyes glued to this debate and she will be unmasked”believes Renaissance MP Nadia Hai. “The more we force her out of her silence, the better. She thrives on emptiness, we have to bring her out of the woods,” adds his colleague Mathieu Lefèvre.
While the candidate from the presidential camp is in difficulty in the polls, the supporters of the President of the Republic are banking on Emmanuel Macron’s commitment to the campaign to mobilize their electorate and initiate a comeback. In recent weeks, in various opinion surveys, Valérie Hayer is around fifteen points behind the head of the RN list, Jordan Bardella, and must also face the dynamics of the socialist candidate, Raphaël Glucksmann. What could be better in these conditions than a duel between the Head of State and Marine Le Pen to lure the Macronist electorate? “The organization of a debate with her would be a way of reducing the Europeans to a duel with the RN and therefore of eclipsing the Glucksmann danger. It’s a bit of a desperate strategy.” analyze the political communications specialist Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, professor at Sciences Po and president of MCBG Conseil.
The format, if it materializes, is not completely new. On September 3, 1992, two weeks before the referendum on the Maastricht Treaty, François Mitterrand confronted the “no” supporter on the small screen, Philippe Séguin, Minister of Employment in the government of Jacques Chirac. The risk of a “yes” vote in the polls had convinced the President of the Republic to enter the arena. He had dominated this duel, retraces Le Figaroand the “yes” vote won on the wire, with a little more than 51% of the votes.
“It is a precedent which would lend credibility to Emmanuel Macron’s approach, deciphers Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. By repeating this Mitterrand-Séguin format, it would bring back memories to its elderly electorate while allowing it to lock the RN into an anti-Europe divide that the far-right party seeks to avoid.” But the exercise is not without risk for the head of state.
“The major risk of such a debate for Emmanuel Macron is to make the European election a referendum on his person, and that is what the RN is seeking.”
Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, specialist in political communicationat franceinfo
The supporters of the President of the Republic only see advantages. “No risk for him. He has a project for Europe, he is a strong leader, he has real proposals”assures one of his close friends, for whom the primary objective of a televised confrontation with Marine Le Pen would be to make “crack the varnish of the RN”.
But, in the majority, some doubt the relevance of this possible meeting. “I am not in favor of it. We would consolidate the rise of Marine Le Pen. If it were not very bad, that would be a gift”estimates a Renaissance MP. “I would prefer that the president spend his weekends at fairs and markets campaigning directly with people. That works very well”adds a ministerial advisor. In 2017 and 2022, the two debates between the two rounds of the presidential election turned to Emmanuel Macron’s advantage. But a little over three weeks before the European election, on June 9, the objective of a victory seems, this time, out of reach of the presidential camp.