(New York) In the aftermath of her camp’s resounding triumph in Tuesday’s abortion referendum in Kansas, Rachel Sweet still seemed to have trouble believing it.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
“This result came as a surprise to most observers, and even to many of us who have been engaged in this battle for years,” said the campaign director of the organization Kansans for Constitutional Freedom. “However, the dice were loaded from the start. »
The young woman was referring to the decision of elected Republicans in Kansas to hold the referendum at the same time as primaries likely to attract many more voters from their party than from Democratic or independent voters.
However, the referendum question on abortion has mobilized voters in Kansas who often only go to the polls during the November elections. Hence this result that surprised everyone: 58.8% of the electorate of this conservative state rejected a constitutional amendment that could have paved the way for the abolition of the right to abortion in Kansas, against 41 .2%.
PHOTO DAVE KAUP, AGENCY FRANCE-PRESSE
Ashley All, spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom
The repeal of the judgment Roe v. wade by the Supreme Court played a crucial role in this mobilization, according to Ashley All, spokesperson for the organization Kansans for Constitutional Freedom.
“The decision to reverse Roe v. wade was a wake-up call for our moderate voters,” she said Wednesday.
It was a wake-up call to Kansas voters who truly thought their constitutional rights were federally protected and found out that day that they weren’t. I think that helped to motivate and mobilize them.
Ashley All, spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom
Candidates and Democratic strategists hope that this mobilization will extend to voters in other American states during the midterm elections next November. They are already noting a shift in their favor in the polls since the Supreme Court ruling on abortion.
A change illustrated by a national barometer from Monmouth University released on Wednesday indicating that 50% of voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress compared to 43%.
Democrats in good shape
Does this mean that Republicans could pay the price for their abortion extremism in November?
When the Supreme Court ruling came down, Democrats said they were going to campaign on abortion. And now Kansas is providing concrete proof that this is a winning theme.
Ross Baker, political scientist from Rutgers University, New Jersey
“It puts the Republican candidates in the embarrassment, added the political scientist. And that gives Democrats an edge in just about every suburb in the country. »
In the 2018 and 2020 elections, these suburbs were instrumental in the successes of Democratic candidates. But abortion may not be the only issue hurting Republicans in the November election. The extremism of certain candidates chosen during the Republican primaries could also weigh in on the vote of the moderate electorate in the suburbs.
A decisive electoral meeting
On Tuesday, Republican voters in Arizona and Michigan listened to Donald Trump and bet on several candidates who had notably refused to recognize the validity of Joe Biden’s election as president.
This is the case of Kari Lake, Blake Masters and Mark Finchem, who have won or are in a good position to win the Republican primaries respectively for governor, senator and secretary of state in Arizona.
PHOTO ROSS D. FRANKLIN, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Mark Finchem, Republican candidate for Secretary of State of Arizona
If elected in November, Finchem would be responsible, as Secretary of State, for organizing the 2024 presidential election. A member of the extremist group Oath Keepers, he participated in the January 6 rally in Washington and walked to the Capitol.
Two other election deniers, Tudor Dixon and Kristina Karamo, also won their respective Michigan primaries for governor and secretary of state. A third, John Gibbs, ousted Republican Rep. Peter Meijer, one of 10 lower house lawmakers who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the attack on the Capitol.
Promoters of the “big lie” about the 2020 presidential election could thus be elected to key positions in at least four key states: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
But Ross Baker hardly believes in their chances of success.
If Donald Trump runs in 2024, he will lose. And the most extremist or Trumpist candidates will lose in November.
Ross Baker, political scientist from Rutgers University, New Jersey
That prediction, even if it comes true, is no guarantee that Democrats will be able to counter Republicans’ attacks on immigration, crime and inflation, among other issues that voters are also concerned about.
PHOTO MEG KINNARD, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Kevin McCarthy, leader of the Republicans in the House of Representatives
“They’re going to increase inflation,” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said on Fox News on Wednesday, referring to a new social and environmental plan proposed by Senate Democrats. “They are going to spend more money, which led us to this problem. They have no plan to fix all the problems they have created. This is why this month of November is so important. »
No one doubts the importance of this electoral meeting.
It remains to be determined which message will dominate.