(Franklin) Michael Landry and Nikki Haley think the same thing about Donald Trump, but they disagree on how to say it this Monday morning, in a community hall in Franklin, a small town located in the heart of the central region of New Hampshire.
On the eve of the Republican primary in this unpredictable state, one speaks using crude language that he undoubtedly acquired while working for a good part of his life as a prison guard.
The other uses the semantic convolutions that are commonplace in the corridors of the United Nations, where she represented the United States as ambassador.
PHOTO RICHARD HÉTU, SPECIAL COLLABORATION
Michael Landry
“Donald Trump attracts trouble like a magnet,” said Michael Landry, a Republican voter, before the speech of Nikki Haley, whose presidential ambitions rest on the electoral verdict of New Hampshire, the second state after Iowa to speak in the race for the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
“I’ve had enough of this,” he adds. Nikki Haley has a much less charged past than Donald. All his court cases are what make me stay away from him. If he is convicted, how can he become president? »
The shadow of legal troubles
At the time Michael Landry spoke these words, Donald Trump was not in New Hampshire, but in New York, where he was attending the second defamation trial brought against him by ex-journalist E. Jean Carroll. At the end of the first trial last May, a jury found him responsible for defamation and sexual assault. A New York judge later ruled that the attack amounted to rape.
In her Franklin speech, delivered in front of almost as many journalists as supporters, Nikki Haley refers to the cases targeting Donald Trump by using a formula that is too diplomatic for the taste of the former president’s critics: “Rightly or wrongly, the chaos follows him. »
Right or wrong ?
The formula aims to accommodate the sensitivities of Republican voters. But she joins many independent voters who hear her in Franklin and whose participation in the Republican primary could help create a surprise Tuesday night.
“I take Donald Trump’s run-ins with the law very seriously,” said Dale Spaulding, a retired civil engineer.
PHOTO RICHARD HÉTU, SPECIAL COLLABORATION
Dale Spaulding
Unlike many Republicans, I respect the independence and professionalism of the prosecutors who drafted the charges against the former president. And I wouldn’t feel comfortable voting for him under the circumstances.
Dale Spaulding, elector
Polls conducted in New Hampshire suggest that Republican voters in this state are no more upset about these matters than those in Iowa, whose caucuses were easily won by Donald Trump last week.
On Monday, the daily barometer conducted by Suffolk University for Boston Globe and NBC10 credited Donald Trump with a 19 percentage point lead over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire.
Most of Donald Trump’s former rivals, including Ron DeSantis, have also lined up behind Donald Trump since the Iowa caucuses. Three of them – South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum – participated in the only rally held Monday by the former president in New Hampshire .
PHOTO JOSEPH PREZIOSO, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Nikki Haley met with voters at a New Hampshire restaurant Monday.
Hence the impression of a coronation that Nikki Haley tried to combat on Monday in each of her speeches, starting with that of Franklin.
I saw the entire political elite, the entire media elite, yesterday and today, saying that I should give up for the good of the country and support Donald Trump. Let’s be clear: Donald Trump won 56,000 votes in Iowa out of 3 million, or 1.5% of the vote.
Nikki Haley
“America doesn’t do coronations,” she continued. We believe in choices. We believe in democracy and freedom. »
Surprising New Hampshire
New Hampshire is known for its electoral surprises. John McCain created one of the biggest by unseating George W. Bush, the big favorite in the race for the Republican nomination for the 2000 presidential election, thanks to the support of independents in the Granite State.
Maureen Clark made her choice on Nikki Haley after a reflection which illustrates the eccentric character of certain independent voters in New Hampshire. She thought about breeding sled dogs, a passion and family business that dates back to her grandfather’s adventures in Labrador.
“When you choose a leader for a team, you want an intelligent dog, capable of making a decision in a fraction of a second, capable of keeping the crew united, in order to save the load and the driver. And sometimes that leader is a female,” she said.
PHOTO RICHARD HÉTU, SPECIAL COLLABORATION
Maureen Clark
I hope Nikki Haley does well. I don’t think she’ll beat Trump, but I think she’ll put in a strong enough performance to allow him to continue his campaign.
Maureen Clark, voter
And what should we conclude from a Donald Trump victory by a large margin in New Hampshire?
“I don’t know if I want to speak publicly about Trump,” responds Maureen Clark, whose family business is in Lincoln, in the White Mountains.
Carolyn Butler, a former school principal, has no such embarrassment.
“He’s too old,” she said of the 77-year-old Republican candidate. “He’s too loud and doesn’t listen to others. »
On the other hand, Nikki Haley, aged 51, represents in his eyes a “new generation”.
That said, this independent voter had not yet made her choice on Monday. Like many New Hampshire voters, she will decide at the last minute, after seeing one or more of the candidates in person, as is the political tradition of this state which takes its primaries seriously.
“I will go to the polling station and make a decision tomorrow morning,” she said.
Tradition obviously does not prevent us from thinking that Nikki Haley, Donald Trump’s latest rival, will be able to count on her vote. But that might not be enough to prevent the former president from being crowned.
Two scenarios for a race to finish
In 2016, Donald Trump declared himself the Republican Party’s “presumptive nominee” for president on April 26, after defeating his last two rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, in the five Northeast states that held primaries that that day. However, he had to wait until May 26 before reaching the magic number of 1,237 delegates required to officially claim the Republican nomination.
Eight years later, the former president should not have to wait so long before being given the title of “presumptive candidate”. But after the withdrawal of Ron DeSantis, can his last rival, Nikki Haley, still dream of a scenario allowing her to block his path?
Let’s take a closer look.
PHOTO MIKE SEGAR, REUTERS
Donald Trump in New Hampshire on Sunday
Trump: quick, well done
Donald Trump could very well repeat in 2024 the feat that Al Gore achieved in 2000: winning all the caucuses and primaries of the electoral season. But the former president should claim victory much more quickly than the former vice-president, who waited until March 15, after the withdrawal of his last rival, Bill Bradley, to do so.
By winning a convincing victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday evening, Donald Trump could be tempted to declare loud and clear that Nikki Haley no longer has any chance of beating him, and no one would dare to contradict him. Especially since no Republican candidate has failed to win the presidential nomination after winning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
But Donald Trump could also wait for the South Carolina Republican primary, scheduled for February 24, before claiming the nomination, if only to enjoy the pleasure of showing off in the state where Nikki Haley was born. and served two terms as governor.
Very popular with Republican voters in South Carolina, Donald Trump also enjoys the support of members of the Republican elite in this state, including the current governor and senators Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott.
Between the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary, Nevada will hold smaller caucuses on February 8.
PHOTO CHARLES KRUPA, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Nikki Haley at New Hampshire, Monday
Haley: it’s happening in New Hampshire
After a rather disappointing third place in Iowa, Nikki Haley needs a much more convincing result in New Hampshire to justify the continuation of her campaign.
The electorate who will participate in the Republican primary in this New England state is favorable to him to a certain point. There are Republicans who are more moderate than elsewhere and independents who reject the MAGA movement and its leader.
A good performance in New Hampshire would obviously not guarantee a victory for Nikki Haley in her native state. But it could give him enough momentum to allow him to participate in the “Super Tuesday” primaries, which will take place on March 5 in 15 states and one territory and will involve more than a third of the 2,429 available delegates.
With a certain number of delegates, Nikki Haley could play spoilsport at the Republican convention, especially if Donald Trump is convicted in one of the criminal trials against him.
That said, she could also end her campaign after the New Hampshire or South Carolina primary after a disappointing performance in either state.
Meanwhile, she trails by nearly 20 percentage points in the latest polls conducted in New Hampshire.