Posted at 5:00 a.m.
(Paris) The construction site of the legislative elections
His victory was barely proclaimed on Sunday evening when his opponents already gave him an appointment for the legislative battle on June 12 and 19. This “third round”, as the French say, usually confirms the result of the presidential election. But while Emmanuel Macron remains a divisive personality and many voters voted for him out of spite, surprises are still possible. On the right (Éric Zemmour) as on the left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon), calls for a coalition have been launched to overthrow the majority and force a cohabitation that would probably be very stormy. His En Marche movement must win this election, otherwise the tenant of the Elysee Palace risks living through difficult days.
The ecological construction site
He has a fairly contested record in this area. But this second term should allow him to raise the bar and initiate a “green turn” expected by a very large part of the youth and a left-wing electorate that he is trying to rally to his cause. He also made it a central theme of his campaign between the two rounds and his victory speech.
“I don’t think he will be able to ignore this question and that he will have to be very ambitious and proactive. He says himself that this is the subject on which he has transformed himself the most intellectually, ”sums up Olivier Ihl, professor of politics at the University of Grenoble.
Mr. Macron has already committed to multiplying wind turbines at sea, developing solar energy, creating 100% French green sectors or building new nuclear reactors, a guarantee of energy independence from Russian gas.
Even if everyone will agree on the substance, this essential project will perhaps not only make people happy. “It can go through measures clinging to punitive ecology, underlines political scientist Jean Petaux. He will have to find the means to have these reforms accepted, which will necessarily be painful. »
The social worksite
Emmanuel Macron will imperatively have to honor the social promises he made during the electoral campaign to convince a left or popular electorate which is far from being won over to his cause. Wages, RSA (welfare), purchasing power, housing, rising gas prices, energy, cost of living, lark. “Immediately, he will be eagerly awaited on this ground, he will have to give pledges, explains Olivier Ihl. However, it will be complicated because France’s public debts are not in good condition and we cannot constantly incur debts. Especially since interest rates are starting to rise. This will be another significant challenge. »
The pension project
Mr. Macron has made it one of the main measures of his program. With reason. Pension reform was one of the sticking points of his first term, and he never managed to see it through, having been cut off in his tracks by the COVID-19 crisis.
“He has pressure on it, underlines Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at Opinion. I think he will have to go to the end of this question if he wants to prove that he is indeed the reformist who presented himself to the French in 2017. ” The project seems to have changed on certain points, however. During the election campaign, candidate Macron said he was open to lowering the legal retirement age to 64, whereas he previously wanted to raise it from 62 to 65. The political scientist Jean Petaux does not exclude, despite everything, that the “oppositions reappear” when the reform is back on track. “In my opinion, it’s going to be a huge piece,” he says.
The construction site of the institutions
The strong abstention in the second round of the presidential election (28%) confirmed the disaffection of the French for the democratic exercise. “Macron will have to reconcile them with politics, restore the bond of trust and therefore renovate and reform the institutions as he undertook to do in 2017”, underlines Caroline Vigoureux.
This multiple project could, among other things, result in the introduction of proportional representation in legislative elections and a reduction in the number of parliamentarians. “There were a lot of things that were quite ambitious in his program and none of that happened,” adds M.me Vigorous. I think that there, it is necessary for the democratic well-being of the country and for the French to feel more represented in the National Assembly, which is really not the case today. »
Emmanuel Macron also mentioned “citizen conventions”, which would make it possible to involve the French in the drafting of certain laws. This new space for democratic expression could, for example, intervene in the context of the debate on assisted dying, which is still prohibited in France.
No question, on the other hand, of introducing the famous referendum of citizens’ initiative (RIC) carried by Marine Le Pen and claimed by the yellow vests. “It’s not in his culture at all, summarizes Thomas Guénolé, author of black book of globalization. Macron is clearly more vertical. »
Whatever the site, the political scientist is however convinced of one thing: the Emmanuel Macron of the second term will be very active. “He will be more pugnacious, more offensive and more reforming than the Macron of the first term. He will go stronger and faster, I’m sure. »