Fuel, strikes, pensions, budget… the period is delicate for the executive. Yet the presidential majority does not believe in a political crisis. Jean-Rémi Baudot’s political brief.
Article written by
Posted
Update
Reading time : 1 min.
There is at the top of the state the idea that the smoldering social crisis will not take. Like Emmanuel Macron last night, the ministers repeat that the Total file is above all a private conflict in which the State must not interfere. Macronie thus thinks that the French will turn against the strikers rather than against the executive.
Public opinion seems to follow. The latest Elabe poll published last night does indeed show weak support from the French. A support that is much lower than other social movements in recent years. This is what makes the government say that the “March against high cost of living” planned for Sunday, October 16 by the Insoumis will not be full.
The majority is also reassured by observing the latest political dynamics. One figure: 71.7%. This is the score of Minister Jean-Noël Barrot on Sunday October 9 in the second round of a partial legislative vote. Facing Nupes, the deputy of Yvelines gained seven points compared to June. A good score but in an acquired constituency. It is therefore difficult to draw a national conclusion.
The majority think they have another secret weapon at Matignon. For many, the Prime Minister would be the best placed to manage pensions and fuel: “If there is one who masters social dialogue, it is her”says a chief of staff. “It drives her crazy that bad social dialogue can block the country”, blows her entourage, haunting the time when she was the boss of the RATP. And her cabinet to detail the role she has had behind the scenes in recent days: repeated calls to Patrick Pouyanné, the boss of Total, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday… “She puts the pressure”says his team.
It does not matter if the result is not seen in service stations for the moment. No matter if it was necessary to launch requisitions. Politically, Elisabeth Borne is on the move. Is it sufficient ? Not sure. A minister is alarmed: “We will have to drive a little more, and also embody”. Behind the scenes, others scoff at too personal communication and too few results. We will see in the coming days if optimism and voluntarism are enough to get out of the current political crisis.