Among voters under 35, the Renaissance list suffers from poor voting intentions for the June 9 election. So much so that the presidential camp no longer hides from betting everything on its base: seniors.
It’s a short 12-second video, published on April 19 on Jordan Bardella’s TikTok account, with 1.2 million subscribers. “Good evening, do you know that the European elections are coming up soon?” asks an activist from the presidential camp, labeled “macronist” by the communication of the National Rally. “Yeah, Bardella.”two young men retort as they walk away.
On one of the favorite social networks of its head of list, the far-right movement showcases what it claims to embody: the party of young people. An ambition which is confirmed in the polls, where the RN comes out on top and achieves very good scores among this age category. According to the fourth wave of Ipsos barometer for Cevipof (PDF link) in April, 32% of 18-24 year olds and 33% of 25-34 year olds wanted to vote for Jordan Bardella. “We must not forget that participation among young people is only 32%. Basically, it is 32% of 32%”, immediately puts Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos, into perspective. This is because, more than ever, abstention remains the first choice among Generation Z.
Opposite, the presidential team looks grim. Only 8% of 18-24 year olds and 11% of 25-34 year olds intend to slip a ballot for Valérie Hayer’s list into the ballot box on June 9. “That makes me sick”sighs Victor Albrecht, president of the Renaissance party in Yonne. “This challenges me and worries me”supports Renaissance MP Ludovic Mendes, well aware that young people “more and more people are going to the RN”. “We are obviously disappointed when we look at the figures, but we are going to give ourselves the means to recover some of these young people!” wants to believe Ambroise Méjean, the president of Young People with Macron (JAM).
“Difficult to find a place”
The JAM activists, who still claim 3,500 active members, are growing impatient. “They say that Emmanuel Macron is the president of young people, it is time to show it”, annoys a youth movement executive. During the first round of 2017, 28% of 25-34 year olds voted for the En Marche candidate, and 18% of 18-24 year olds, according to Ipsos. Five years later, only 23% of 25-34 year olds voted for Emmanuel Macron, while the share of 18-24 year olds increased slightly, to 20%, again according to Ipsos. “It had found an echo in this category, but there was an effect of disappointment, of normalization of the exercise of power”assures Christelle Craplet, director of BVA Opinion.
“Emmanuel Macron has never succeeded, despite his young age, his proposal for a break with old politics and the questioning of the left-right divide, in convincing young people”, nuance Anne Muxel, deputy director of the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof). Thus, in 2022, it was Jean-Luc Mélenchon who was popular with young people, closely followed by Marine Le Pen.
“The radicalities expressed at the extremes are more in line with the concerns of young people.”
Anne Muxel, deputy director of Cevipofat franceinfo
Young people are “much more sensitive to certain themes, such as gender-based and sexual violence, harassment, animal welfare or discrimination. These are also themes less supported by Renaissance”, continues Anne Muxel. But these themes are not really the specialty of the National Rally, whose arguments focus more on security, immigration or inflation. “A part of the youth electorate, challenged by questions of purchasing power, defends an anti-system logic”explains Mathieu Gallard, from Ipsos.
In the presidential camp, some of the troops have noted the defection of Generation Z. “Between ‘Gaza youth’ captured by LFI and ‘working youth’ captured by the RN, in a category little motivated by Europeans, it is difficult to find a place”concedes Robin Reda, Renaissance deputy for Essonne.
In addition to substantive issues, the RN, unlike the majority, has also massively invested in social networks which reach a younger audience. “Bardella is the TikTok candidate”mocks a majority pundit. “It’s very good to take a selfie in Cambrai, but where is the RN project?”, mocks a minister. If Valérie Hayer is not on this social network controlled by China, due to “espionage risks”she is on the other hand on Instagram. But the head of the presidential camp’s list suffers from his lack of notoriety and only has 9,400 subscribers. “We are not very good on the social networks on which young people get information, we are not very present”deplores a member of the Renaissance executive board.
Unpopular reforms
There are also more cyclical causes for young people dropping out of Renaissance. “What has happened since 2022 has had an influence”, recalls Mathieu Gallard. Pension reform, for example, “is not a popular reform. It has cost public opinion” and with this electorate, regrets a Renaissance executive, who euphemistically evokes another obstacle occurring in 2023.
“I am not sure that the immigration law has contributed positively to our popularity among young people.”
A Renaissance settingat franceinfo
To try to bridge this gap which continues to widen, Renaissance and the JAM want to emphasize the measures taken towards young people over the past seven years. Meals for one euro for scholarship students, free contraception or reusable period protection, “rail pass”… “We should perhaps remember that a lot of things have been done at national and European level”says a minister. Internally, voices are being raised against the very firm speech given by the Prime Minister since his arrival at Matignon.
“Talking to young people is not only from a repressive angle. We want to respond to youth violence with repressive measures when we clearly see that this violence is born from social problems.”
Ludovic Mendes, Renaissance MPat franceinfo
A Renaissance executive also says “surprised” by the tone of Gabriel Attal’s words: “I understand the need to have a discourse on authority, but I find that we are going too far. I don’t see how the sequence in the boarding school serves us”he says about these images, published onof the head of government in full demonstration of authority with residents of a boarding school for dropouts. “The Prime Minister’s speech gives the feeling that the country is in flames and that the youth are responsible. This speech does not help to regain control”he continues.
“We cannot say that there is increasingly present violence among young people and remain idly, we must provide solutions”, replies a minister. These critical voices, however, expected a lot from the arrival of Gabriel Attal at Matignon at the beginning of January. The youngest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic was then presented as a “anti-Bardella weapon” capable of competing with the head of the RN list among young people, among other categories.
Renaissance, party of retirees?
By focusing on the reestablishment of authority, as during Gabriel Attal’s speech in Viry-Châtillon (Essonne)the government seems to want “cure” primarily the oldest, estimates Christelle Craplet. A strategy far from trivial: seniors represent the last electoral bastion of Renaissance, which “no longer has a solid base among active people”, analyzes Mathieu Gallard. The list led by Valérie Hayer thus collects 27% of voting intentions among those over 70, according to Ipsos, compared to 26% for Jordan Bardella. This is the only age category where the Renaissance list is ahead of that of the RN. “We should not become sustainable” the party of retirees, worries a key figure in the majority.
One month before the election, and faced with polls at half mast, Renaissance is first seeking to replenish its electorate. “This is clearly not the election that will allow us to expand the base. We must therefore already mobilize our people and, if they are going to vote, prevent them from voting for us!”, insists Robin Reda. The former elected LR assumes to seek the vote of seniors: “I’ve been doing this for ten years, it doesn’t impress me.” Another reason to target older people: they are the ones who plan to travel for the European elections. According to Ipsos, 62% of those over 70 say they are sure to vote, compared to only 32% of 18-24 year olds and 30% of 25-34 year olds.
Will there be a surge in participation from these age groups on June 9? “People decide late, especially among young people, who are less attached to a party”, affirms Mathieu Gallard. But the tidal wave of juvenile bulletins for Valérie Hayer is not really the most likely hypothesis. “If you manage to talk to young people, it has to translate into a vote, and a vote in your favor, which is very difficult”, points out Christelle Craplet. A major challenge for the Macronists, mired in a campaign that is not taking off.