The head of state’s supporters find themselves in a delicate position after the first round of voting. They could lose many seats in the second round, on July 7.
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There was no surge at the polls for the presidential camp. After the European elections, he suffered a new major electoral defeat. Emmanuel Macron’s supporters obtained 21% of the votes cast on Sunday, June 30, during the first round of early legislative elections, according to an Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP. That’s five points less than in 2022, during the previous legislative elections, when Renaissance and its allies obtained 25.75% of the votes. Above all, the central bloc finished in third position, far behind the National Rally (33.2%) and the left, gathered under the colors of the New Popular Front (28.1%).
Since the announcement of the surprise dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron on the evening of the European elections, outgoing deputies and candidates have led a campaign with headwinds. Above all, anger has never subsided towards the President of the Republic, guilty, according to them, of having led them into this crisis. Many candidates thus refused to include the face of the head of state in their electoral propaganda or to mention the label of the presidential majority. A strategy which was not enough to limit the damage at the national level.
While it is still too early to have a precise idea of the configuration of the Assembly in the second round, particularly in the triangulars, where candidates could withdraw, the alliance led by the presidential party should lose many seats and therefore its relative majority at the Palais-Bourbon. If the trend continues in the second round, Renaissance and its allies would obtain between 70 to 100 seats on the evening of July 7, according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate, which should be taken with caution. A massive decline in the central bloc which, during the 16th legislature, had 169 Renaissance deputies, 50 MoDem deputies and 31 Horizons deputies, i.e. a force of 250 parliamentarians. Certainly, far from the absolute majority, set at 289 deputies, and from the period 2017-2022, but enough to pass texts by voting with the left or the right.
This time, the risk for the presidential camp to find itself in the opposition is immense. Many Macronist figures, candidates in these elections, are trying to keep their seats. The former Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, comes in second place (28.93%) behind the RN candidate, Nicolas Calbrix (36.26%), in the 6th constituency of Calvados. The current Prime Minister, Gabriel Attalranks in first position (43.85%) in the 10th constituency of Hauts de Seine, ahead of the NFP candidate, Cécile Soubelet (35.53%).
The minister of the Interior, Gerald Darmanincame out on top in the 10th constituency of the North with 36.03% of the vote. He narrowly beat the RN candidate, Bastien Verbrugghe (34.31%), while the NFP representative, Leslie Mortreux only won 24.83% of the vote. The President of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet (Ensemble) came out on top, with 42.80% of the vote, in a three-way race in the 5th constituency of Yvelines. Sylvain Maillardformer president of the Renaissance group and candidate for re-election in the 1st constituency of Paris, took first place (44.70%) against the NFP candidate, lawyer Raphaël Kempf (32.09%).
The ex-minister Clement Beaunehe was eliminated (32.78%) in the 7th district of Paris, facing the NFP candidate Emmanuel Grégoire who won in the first round with 50.87% of the votes.
The presidential camp will now have to meet to decide on its second round strategy as quickly as possible. In a statement to AFP, Emmanuel Macron calls has a “large gathering, clearly Democratic and Republican” against the RN. According to the head of state, the high participation shows a desire to “clarify the political situation”. In a press release, Renaissance did not provide any more specific voting instructions. In the constituencies “where our candidates came in third place, we will withdraw in favor of candidates who are able to beat the National Rally and with whom we share the essential: the values of the Republic”the party wrote, calling “all political parties to act responsibly and do the same”.
If the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, insisted that “not a voice [devait] go to the National Rally”he also called on the majority candidates who came in third place to withdraw in favour of a “candidate who defends [comme Ensemble] the values of the Republic”seeming to exclude those of La France insoumise. Edouard Philippe was clearer. “I consider that no voice should be cast on the candidates of the RN, nor on those of La France Insoumise, with whom we differ not only on programs but on fundamental values”writes the president of Horizons and mayor of Le Havre in a press release.
“We will need clarity on Sunday evening”nevertheless insisted, a few days ago, to franceinfo, an advisor to the executive, for whom “the question of the republican arc” had to arise. If some party leaders have made it known that they would continue to call for blocking the National Rally, even with an LFI ballot, like Clément Beaune, many other executives, but also ministers, have said everything throughout the campaign their refusal of the far-right camp but also that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “I will not call to vote for either RN candidates or LFI candidates, who are not looking for voters, but victims,” declared Secretary of State Sabrina Agresti-Roubache on CNews on June 17.