2024 starts like 2023: the president of the next COP is linked to the fossil fuel industry. But above all, 2024 begins like 2023: very few observers make the effort to explain the role of president of a COP, and the scope of his influence on the negotiations.
It should already be remembered that the COPs take place in five geographical zones which rotate each year. For COP29, it was Eastern Europe’s turn, which nominated Azerbaijan. Then, Azerbaijan appointed its current Minister of the Environment, Mukhtar Babayev, as president of COP29. Before becoming a minister, Mr. Babayev notably worked for the national oil company for 26 years, partly as vice-president in charge of ecology.
A place above all useful for logistics
Climate change being an interstate problem – countries that are not very responsible for climate change suffer the consequences of emissions from other countries – we must deal with all countries and their respective realities. And Azerbaijan’s reality is that it is among the ten countries most dependent on oil and gas, whose revenues constitute 64% of its GDP. Unfortunately, no matter how much these countries slow down or even oppose the transition, limiting warming to 1.5°C is impossible without managing this reality.
And then, which country would have the legitimacy to organize a COP? If we remove the largest producers of fossil fuels, the largest consumers of fossil fuels, those who are not adapting sufficiently and those who are not providing the necessary financing to developing countries, there are simply none left. none.
In fact, the location of a COP is especially important for its progress. With Azerbaijan, it has now been three years in a row that the COP has taken place in rather authoritarian states, allowing little or no civil society demonstrations. This element is clearly regrettable, because large demonstrations, like the one in Glasgow in 2021, are a crucial asset to put pressure on negotiators.
A president with limited influence
The president of a COP can only accelerate or slow down the ambition — or lack of ambition — of States. The COP negotiations are driven by the States and you just have to attend them to be convinced of this.
To summarize, states express their positions, the president proposes texts based on their positions, and then states adopt the texts or propose modifications. It is important to understand that States can always object, propose a modification, express their dissatisfaction, etc.
But above all, the heart of the negotiations takes place without the president. The latter designates session chairs, who are diplomats or ministers from around the world. Here again, States express their positions, presidents propose texts based on their positions, then States adopt the texts or propose modifications. And States can always object, propose a modification, express their dissatisfaction, etc.
However, it would be naive and false to say that the president does not have influence through his proposals. But compared to the historic lack of ambition of developed countries for financing developing countries, or the disinterest of fossil fuel exporting countries in reducing them, this influence is clearly weak.
Lessons to be learned from COP28 and its president
Throughout 2023, criticism has been heaped on Sultan al-Jaber. Finally, many observers defend the fact that this choice of president made it possible to shed light on fossil fuels and pave the way towards an agreement. Some also defend the idea that the president even ended up making the agreement on fossil fuels a personal issue.
More broadly, the diplomatic work of the presidency was rather recognized thanks to an ambitious agenda, quickly adopted, and an agreement on loss and damage from the first day of COP28.
The president of COP29 will therefore have the difficult task of making the critics lie, as his predecessor did. Especially since this next COP is particularly important, because it must adopt a new financing objective, particularly towards developing countries.
Financing being the element that can unlock everything else by allowing the implementation of mitigation and adaptation within countries, let us hope that Mukhtar Babayev will fulfill his role and will be able to propose the compromises which will allow the agreement to be reached. as ambitious as possible.