(Quebec) It’s not just the Super Bowl to watch on February 12. Another big event, long awaited in Canada, will take place that day, unless there is a last minute change.
The provinces have indeed circled February 12 and 13 on their calendar for a first ministers’ meeting in Ottawa to reach a long-term agreement on health care funding with Justin Trudeau, learned The Press. A Super Bowl of Canadian politics!
There is a condition for the provinces to formally invite Justin Trudeau to this meeting. He will have to advance a little on the sums he is ready to put on the table.
The provinces are expecting federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to provide guidance on raising the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) when she meets with her counterparts, likely on Feb. 2. All governments prepare their budgets and hope to have an idea of the growth of the CHT, at least in the short term.
The wind of optimism in the face of the possibility of an agreement, fueled in large part by Ottawa, gives hope to the provinces.
What if the balloon were to deflate? The provincial premiers would maintain the meeting regardless. They would seek to increase the pressure on Justin Trudeau on this occasion.
But for the moment, all the signals are green. It is hard to see how the federal government could have inflated expectations over the past few days without having a large check to present. However, let’s be careful before thinking that all these beautiful people are going to dance to Rihanna at halftime.
Because expectations are high, very high. The provinces have been calling for more than two years now for a $28 billion increase in the CHT, in order to increase Ottawa’s share of health care funding from 22% to 35%. In addition, the federal contribution should be indexed by 6% per year in order to keep pace with the growth in health spending.
Structure of the agreement
Behind-the-scenes negotiations between the Prime Ministers’ offices have accelerated in recent weeks. The structure of the agreement is established.
So the deal would include a long-term CRT increase, probably 10 years. It would stipulate that Ottawa must subsequently conclude bilateral agreements. The federal government would pour additional funds into priority areas for each of the provinces and which are also expected to correspond to themes raised by Justin Trudeau during the last election campaign – mental health, front-line services and long-term care. .
Everyone would find something there. The provinces could be pleased that Ottawa does not impose any conditions on them. No national standards or “accountability” measures, only a sharing of their data on the performance of the health network. For his part, Justin Trudeau would pride himself on fulfilling his commitments.
Paved in the pond
With this improvement in federal-provincial relations, one wonders in Quebec what the fly stung Justin Trudeau to throw a stone into the pond in an interview with The Press.
Mr. Trudeau is seriously considering going to the Supreme Court to further regulate the use of the notwithstanding clause by the provinces.
Since the election of the CAQ, Quebec has used it twice: for the State Secularism Act and for the An Act respecting the official and common language of Quebec, French.
François Legault immediately accused his counterpart of wanting to “attack democracy and the entire Quebec people”. However, this is not a clash likely to compromise a federal-provincial meeting on health. “We don’t mix up files,” they say in Quebec.
Session… and election
Additional funds from Ottawa would be good news for the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, who is preparing his March budget… and the announcement of the tax cuts promised during the election campaign.
It is also in March that the government plans, for the moment, to hold the by-election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, a riding that has been vacant since the resignation of Dominique Anglade.
Expectations are modest at the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), but they are high at Québec solidaire (QS) in the context of the crisis that has shaken the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ). The Liberal leader won with 36% of the vote – against 28% for QS and 18% for the CAQ. This is an important opportunity for QS, which stalled in the last general election.
By criticizing himself in an interview with The Press Last week, co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois wanted to prepare the ground for his party’s National Council on February 11 and 12, during which members will take stock of the fall election campaign. The exercise promises to be perilous for him. Will the approach of a by-election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne lead the members to moderate their criticism in the public square?
This Sunday, QS is holding a first rally in the constituency with its candidate, immigration lawyer Guillaume Cliche-Rivard, who is trying his luck again. He will hold his caucus the next day to prepare for the parliamentary session which will begin on January 31.
All the other parties are meeting their deputies this week for the start of the school year. The government has already defined a large part of its legislative menu.
The Minister of Economy and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, will table a “robust” bill affecting Hydro-Québec and the Régie de l’énergie. His Environment colleague, Benoit Charette, will present a new version of his bill aimed at increasing water royalties, in particular to add the creation of a “Blue Fund” to protect lakes and rivers – an election promise.
Other bills tabled in the previous term are being reviewed and will be tabled by summer, including one on policing and another on expanding access to aid medical to die for.
The Minister of Labor, Jean Boulet, will be ready to submit to the National Assembly his legislative text to limit and supervise child labor. He wants to have him adopted before the summer holidays.
The Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, will table two bills: one creating Santé Québec – an agency that would coordinate the operations of the health network while the Ministry would focus on defining the main orientations –, the other aimed at supervising private personnel agencies.
At the beginning of the year, he tried to focus on “progress” in the health network, but his communication plan was compromised by the emergency room crisis at Maisonneuve-Rosemont hospital.
The pressure is already great on Christian Dubé for his Health Plan to produce results. It will probably be more so if Ottawa increases its funding. Beyond the significant gain represented by the conclusion of an agreement, patients will have to see concrete benefits in terms of access to care.