The postpandemic world according to China

With the arrival of the new year, many of us are already wondering about the post-pandemic. In 2022, we’ll likely see the end of this damn crisis, which presumably originated in China. Despite this, everything suggests that Xi Jinping’s country will play a very important role in a post-pandemic world.

Indeed, this new year could well be historic for China. If there is one place in the world where symbolism is of capital importance, it is in this country, which is preparing to host the Winter Olympics in a few weeks. All of Beijing’s actions will be heavily influenced by the image of a nation that increasingly assumes responsibility on an international scale.

As the world focuses its attention on the Games, President Xi Jinping is instead looking to next fall, as he runs for a third five-year term. For the first time, a president would be “elected” for a third consecutive term since Mao Zedong, founder of the People’s Republic of China.

If you believe that Canada-China relations were already not going very well, a third term could have far-reaching consequences for Canada.

Whether we accept it or not, Xi Jinping’s party enjoys tremendous popularity in China, and the Eastern people seem to appreciate the authoritarian style adopted by the current government. Xi Jinping will surely want to present himself as the great protector against the “risky” values ​​of the West. The way the pandemic has been handled in China has also consolidated the power of the Beijing administration. The pandemic has severely weakened the West compared to China, despite its pitiful reputation for transparency and human rights. While China limits the damage, the West has been dying for almost two years. During this period, the geopolitical chessboard changed completely.

The January 6, 2021 insurgency in Washington, one year ago to the day, demonstrated to the world how cruelly America is divided. Meanwhile, the Chinese Republic seems flawless and its people know it.

Tensions in an era of interdependence

Unsurprisingly, the relationship between Washington and Beijing has deteriorated markedly since Joe Biden came to the White House. Many claim that this marks the beginning of a cold war led by the United States, much like the one we have seen between the Eastern Bloc and the Western world for years. Diplomatic tensions are palpable, of course, but the Cold War of the 1970s and 1980s was nothing like it. It featured ideological differences between two regions whose economic interdependence hardly existed. There was little commercial activity between the two camps. The political and economic interdependence between China and the United States is such that its influence affects an incredible number of countries, especially the countries neighboring China and Canada.

Countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have benefited greatly from the Chinese boom in recent decades, at the expense of the security provided by Washington.

If these countries have to choose an ally, their choice will fall on China. Economic prosperity simply comes before security.

For Canada, our relationship with China is already strained enough. As of March 2019, some permits to export canola to China remain pending, mainly due to the Meng Wanzhou affair. These days, Ottawa is communicating its actions against China without ever even mentioning China explicitly. Ottawa fully understands to what extent Canada is caught up in the Washington-Beijing discord.

Even though only 10% of its territory is cultivable, China ranks first in the world in the production of cereals, fruits and vegetables, meat, poultry, eggs and fish. Despite having only 9% of the arable land and 6% of the fresh water, China feeds 22% of the world’s population. The country produces a lot, but also buys a lot. Demand for soybeans and pulses has exploded in recent years. Canada is not even among the top 15 importing countries of products from China, but the United States comes first with more than 500 billion products imported annually. Ottawa will therefore have to maintain its alliance with Washington while remaining attentive to Beijing.

To reach the export target of 75 billion agri-food products by 2025 suggested in the Barton report by the former Canadian ambassador to China, Canada must have a trade agreement with China. It is high time, but Canada must above all better understand this power of the East and understand the meaning of its agrifood needs.

A good wish for 2022. But if President Xi Jinping is offered a historic third term, it is likely that things will become more complicated for Ottawa.