If the‘”abstention comes from a portion of the left”Marine Le Pen “could possibly create a surprise”, assures Monday, April 11 on franceinfo Erwan Lecœur, political scientist and sociologist, specialist in the far right. According to him, “the republican front no longer exists” in France in the face of the rise of the extreme right. What will be played for the second round, according to him, is who, Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen, will arouse the strongest rejection: “About who will express the highest level of hatred” ?
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franceinfo: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are again in the second round of the presidential election. What has changed compared to 2017?
Erwan Lecoeur: Marine Le Pen accounts for a total of around 32% in the first round [si on ajoute les votes pour elle à ceux pour Eric Zemmour et Nicolas Dupont-Aignan], which will obviously be favorable to him in the second round. It has greatly narrowed the gap compared to 2017. What has also changed is that for forty years of Lepenism in France, and twenty years after April 21, 2002, we have the impression that the Republican front does not exist more for a structural reason due to our political system.
“The major governing parties of the left and now the right have imploded. They no longer exist.”
Erwan Lecoeur, political scientistat franceinfo
There is now a tripolarization of the political field. An ecological social center of which Jean-Luc Mélenchon became the absolute, indisputable and undisputed leader on the evening of this first round; a central pole that we will call liberal manager with Emmanuel Macron, who is a leader in his field; and today, Marine Le Pen, who has taken over the leadership after a Zemmourian episode in the media since last summer.
The republican front against the extreme right is ancient history?
It’s what we called dikes in the 2000s. We were talking about the dike against the National Front. The problem with a dike is that once the water has passed over it, the water does not leave. This is what has been happening for twenty years in our country. Lepenism, little by little, caused water to pass and today, we realize that the water has risen behind the dike. Marine Le Pen is neck and neck with outgoing Emmanuel Macron. This is also what has changed compared to 2017. At the time, Emmanuel Macron was the novelty. Today, this is no longer a novelty. It is Marine Le Pen who, eventually, appears as the potential novelty.
Has she learned from her past mistakes?
Not only did she learn from her mistakes, but she also learned who her opponent was. She’s been preparing for this moment for five years. As a sociologist, I have always considered that Zemmour would never exceed 10% because its fundamental structure is the traditionalist Catholic extreme right like Marion Maréchal. These are people who cannot today in France – in any case as long as Marine Le Pen exists – attract more than ten percentage points, at the most. But nevertheless, Éric Zemmour ran ahead like a hare and brought people to the vote in the first round who might not have come to vote for Marine Le Pen in the first round. People who are precisely in confusionism, in extremism, which Marine Le Pen is no longer quite, for example traditionalist Catholics. These people are available today. That’s why we have more than 32% of people who are available in the second round.
Éric Zemmour couldn’t help but support Marine Le Pen?
Eric Zemmour has no choice. He took from Marine Le Pen the first electorate of the National Front, that of the years 1980-1990. The right-wing electorate who comes from a conservative, reactionary, often Catholic traditionalist right. He took this electorate of Jean-Marie Le Pen and spoke to them, as Jean-Marie Le Pen did. Marine Le Pen, she consolidated the other electorates, the “ni-nists” neither right nor left of the 1990s, and the electorate that she herself consolidated, with women, young people, a whole bunch new voters, the “Navy blue rally” around a nationalist populism that is no longer just and only on the far right.
“Marine Le Pen has shown that she is the leader of the nationalist camp. She is still the one who ‘holds the case’. So Éric Zemmour has no choice.”
Erwan Lecoeurat franceinfo
Eric Zemmour took from Marine Le Pen in the first round, he made a bet. This bet was losing in advance, in my opinion, sociologically. In the media, he was deluded because he had the Bolloré media group behind him. What Marine Le Pen has never had to this point. For six months, we spoke almost only of Éric Zemmour. The CNRS did a study. Never has the far right been so present in all the media in France for six months. It’s absolutely phenomenal. Even in 2002, we never had that. But Marine Le Pen has pulled out of the game, and Eric Zemmour must rally, otherwise he will disappear politically. And then there are all the people who went from RN to Zemmour who understood that their strategy was the wrong one. They are slowly coming back and trying to negotiate places. Marine Le Pen will not be able to govern alone. The RN does not have the political, social, intellectual forces to govern a country. They will have to appeal to a part of the right. Marine Le Pen is going to flirt with the populist electorate, for example Mélenchoniste. Eric Zemmour will speak to the right-handed part of LR and others.
Where is Marine Le Pen’s biggest voice reserve?
It is in differential abstention. In reality, what will be played for the second round is what will be the highest level of hatred? Towards whom will the highest level of hatred be expressed? In the Mélenchon electorate and in the left-wing electorate in general, will the level of hatred of Emmanuel Macron be sufficient to ensure that Marine Le Pen can win? That is the real question that arises. The Republican front no longer exists because voters are no longer fooled. They have been asked to vote against Le Pen, Jean-Marie and then Marine three times. A number of them say they won’t go this time. More than a quarter of the French abstained, we are talking about the remaining three-quarters. There could be an even stronger abstention in the second round. And with this differential abstention, if it comes from a portion of the left or from what was sociologically the left of yesteryear, then Marine Le Pen could possibly create a surprise. This is what she hopes: first by recovering for her own benefit a part of what remains of the right, and of what remains of the voters of the left, by polarizing very strongly on the discontent with regard to Emanuel Macron. Then, by saying half-word: with me the war with Putin will not take place, I know him and we will get along. And then saying: this time, you have the opportunity to really upset the system; look: I am no longer what my father was, it is no longer so serious, I am no longer on the extreme right. All this combined could lead us to a form of political accident if Emmanuel Macron and the troops who should support him do not measure the magnitude of the issue.