The possible visit to Taiwan of the speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, provokes strong warnings from China.
Posted at 12:00 a.m.
A spokesperson for the Asian giant returned to the subject on Wednesday, warning the American administration that it would face “firm measures” and should “assume all the consequences” if the politician went ahead.
The day before, the Chinese army had issued a similar warning as the country’s state media repeatedly evoke potential military actions.
the GlobalTimeswho acts as a spokesperson for the regime, notably pointed out that Chinese fighter planes could be deployed to “accompany the plane” of Mr.me Pelosi if she ventures to Taiwan.
Additional measures
Beijing also raises the possibility of imposing in retaliation a no-fly zone over Taiwan, which China considers to be an integral part of its territory.
PHOTO SELIM CHTAYTI, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
Xi Jinping, President of China
Although the United States does not formally recognize Taiwan as a country in its own right, it supports its government and it is generally understood that it would intervene militarily if the communist regime attempted to annex the territory by force.
The Chinese regime has for decades opposed any formal relationship between Washington and Taipei and sees in the potential visit of Mr.me Pelosi an encouragement to the independence demands of the Taiwanese leaders.
Several US senators have visited the island in recent years, but no elected speaker of the House of Representatives, the third highest post in the political hierarchy in Washington, has done so for 25 years.
Ambiguous
Mme Pelosi has not confirmed that she intends to visit Taiwan in August as the FinancialTimesbut she did not deny it either, insisting on the need to support the island against Beijing.
Democratic President Joe Biden, who is due to speak to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping by phone on several issues on Thursday, said the Pentagon considers the planned trip a “bad idea”.
Guy Saint-Jacques, Canada’s former ambassador to Beijing, notes that it is not uncommon for China to raise its voice in relation to exchanges between Taiwan and the United States.
However, we must beware of minimizing the situation since the potential for escalation is real, notes the former diplomat.
A visit by Nancy Pelosi in August would be seen as an affront by the Chinese president, who intends to be given a third term at the head of the country at the National Congress of the Communist Party scheduled for the fall.
Failures in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the country’s economic difficulties, grappling with a major real estate crisis, have “reduced its room for maneuver” and increase the possibility, notes Mr. Saint-Jacques, that he is tempted by a “military coup”.
Xi Jinping cannot afford to look weak in front of the United States.
Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian Ambassador to Beijing
Kharis Templeman, a China-US relations specialist from Stanford University, thinks the current situation is “worrying” even though neither country wants a major conflict at this stage.
The public interventions linked to the visit of Mme Pelosi mean that neither China nor the United States will want to give the impression of “retreating”.
“Someone will have to pay the price, but I don’t know who it will be,” he said.
Arm yourself with caution
The imposition of a no-fly zone on Taiwan by Beijing or the “accompaniment” of Mr.me Pelosi seems unrealistic, but it cannot be excluded, notes the researcher, that China decides to launch military maneuvers near the island to protest against the visit.
We could even witness, says Mr. Saint-Jacques, the firing of warning missiles, as was the case during a major crisis in 1995.
Whatever happens, notes Mr. Templeman, Xi Jinping will want to avoid any major conflagration to limit internal criticism before the National Congress and facilitate the appointment of proteges to key positions.
Mike Chinoy, of the US-China Institute, is also concerned about the projected visit of Mme Pelosi in an article that appeared this week in Foreign Policy.
The analyst, a former CNN reporter, said he was briefly apprehended with colleagues 30 years ago after Mr.me Pelosi unexpectedly held up a poster denouncing the Tiananmen Massacre during an official visit to Beijing.
His visit to Taipei, if it materializes, would represent a “provocation” of a whole new magnitude at a “much more dangerous time” due to the deterioration of relations between China and the United States, warns Mr. Chinoy, who does not see the opportunity to carry out such an action without apparent coordination with the administration of Joe Biden.
The planned trip is richer in symbolism than in substance and aims first and foremost to allow the politician to taunt Beijing “as she has done in the past”, he concludes.