The planet, which has never been as hot as in 2023, has never consumed so much coal: global demand reached 8.53 billion tonnes this year, a historic record, the International Coal Agency said on Friday. energy (IEA).
While the European Copernicus Observatory estimated at the beginning of November “with near certainty” that average temperatures on the planet would this year exceed the annual record established in 2016, the IEA established that the tons of coal consumed in the world this year would exceed the previous record dating from 2022.
The combustion of coal to produce energy or in industry emits a large proportion of CO into the atmosphere.2 responsible for global warming.
It is in Asia that the appetite for coal is the greatest: according to the IEA, this year, consumption in China will have jumped by 220 million tonnes (+4.9%) compared to 2022, that of India will have increased by 98 million tonnes (+8%), and that of Indonesia by an additional 23 million tonnes (+11%).
On the other hand, consumption slowed down sharply in Europe (decrease of 107 million tonnes, -23%), and in the United States (decrease of 95 million tonnes, -21%), mainly due to the change in power plants which are gradually abandoning coal to save the climate, and the weakness of industrial activity.
The IEA admits its difficulty in issuing forecasts for Russia, the world’s fourth largest consumer of coal, due to the war in Ukraine. The forecasts for Ukraine are also “uncertain”, indicates the Agency.
“From 2024”, global consumption should begin a declining trend, however, estimates the IEA in its forecasts published two days after the close of the 28e UN international climate meeting in Dubai, which called for a gradual abandonment of fossil fuels, including coal, to fight against global warming.
Coal “peak” in 2023
The IEA is counting in particular on a very significant increase in renewable energies (wind, solar) on the planet to “push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory”. Coal consumption “should reach its peak in 2023”, estimates the Agency.
Beyond the use of coal to power power plants, consumption should not weaken in its industrial uses such as cement factories.
Paradoxically, in the case of Indonesia, it is the extraction and refining of nickel, booming to supply the automobile battery markets of the energy transition, which favors the consumption of coal in mining processes.
China nevertheless remains by far the biggest player on the coal scene, with more than half of world consumption (54%) alone.
“More than 60%” of the coal used in China is used to generate electricity, and the country continues to build coal-fired power plants (52 GW of new projects have been approved in 2023).
But the IEA expects a turning point in 2023 if the country does not suffer too many cold (or hot) waves which influence the use of power plants.
According to the agency, Chinese coal consumption for electricity production is expected to fall by 175 million tonnes over the period 2024-26, to 2.8 billion tonnes.
As a result, it is India which will become the “engine” of the upward pressure on global coal demand until 2026, underlines the Agency.
In the European Union, the proliferation of renewable energies is favoring the decline of coal. In Germany, lignite and coal-fired power plants are expected to significantly reduce by 2025, as solar and wind power plants which emit almost no CO are deployed.2.