The past nine years are among the “top 10” of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth, and 2021 ranks sixth, according to the annual report of a reference American scientific agency, published Thursday. The missing tenth year does not go back far, since it is 2010 (ranked in ninth position). The past eight years are the warmest on record since records began in 1880, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency.
These data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) once again underline the extent of global warming, experts have hammered. And they confirm the major trend observed by the analyzes of NASA, made public simultaneously, as well as those of the European Copernicus Earth observation service, revealed on Monday.
The planet has warmed dramatically
Despite slight differences in their rankings, all of these agencies tell the same story, namely “that the planet has warmed dramatically”, told a press conference Russell Vose, head of climate monitoring at NOAA. And “all of this is driven by rising concentrations of heat-trapping gases”, such as CO2, he added.
By the early 2040s, average global temperatures will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C
The average temperature recorded last year was 1.04°C higher than the pre-industrial era (1880-1900). But the objective of the Paris agreement is to contain global warming “clearly” below +2°C, and if possible at +1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era. “At some point in the 2030s, or indeed by the early 2040s, average global temperatures will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C”, said Russell Vose.
The emission reduction commitments made by the various countries, including those announced at COP26 in November, leave the world on a warming trajectory of 2.7°C for the moment, a level qualified as “catastrophic” by the UN.
The Arctic tends to melt a little faster every year
The 2021 average was pulled down by the La Nina weather phenomenon, which tends to cool temperatures. But NOAA points out that the average land surface temperature in the northern hemisphere last year was listed as the third highest since 1880.
And the average arctic sea ice size was the ninth smallest since records began in 1979. Sea ice tends to melt a little faster each year in the summer, and recover a little less in the winter. The warming in the Arctic is about three times faster than the warming of the entire planet, pointed out Gavin Schmidt, of NASA’s Goddard Institute, during the same press conference. This accentuates the rise in water levels and the release of CO2.
The European service Copernicus had ranked the year 2021 in fifth place on Monday, but it is not uncommon for agencies to present slight differences in their data, due to different methodologies. In any case, they agree that 2016 remains the hottest year on record. According to Russell Vose, the year 2022 has “99% chance” to also rank in the “top 10”.
We have reached a stage where global warming data is no longer an esoteric measure but is reflected in the events we see
The current global warming is clearly attributable to human activities and in particular to fossil fuels (gas, oil, coal). It has the consequence of amplifying extreme climatic phenomena. “We have reached a stage where global warming data is no longer an esoteric or academic measure of what is happening, but is reflected in the weather and events we see”, said Gavin Schmidt.
The year 2021 has thus seen Siberia and California ravaged by flames, spectacular floods in Germany and Belgium, Australia and China, a delirious heat wave in Canada… If certain weather events are difficult to directly link to the climate change, others can now clearly be attributed to it, such as the heat wave over western North America this summer.
Temperatures will continue to rise as long as we continue to increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Kristina Dahl, a climatologist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, reacted to the publication of the report on Thursday: “What terrifies me about this latest data…is that it’s not even surprising or shocking anymore.”, she said in a statement, calling on politicians to take action “resolved”.
“Temperatures will continue to rise as long as we continue to increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”, hammered Gavin Schmidt.