“The only thing that can bring down Benyamin Netanyahu is the departure of his far-right ministers”

While tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated on Saturday against the Israeli government, Nitzan Perelman, specialist in Israeli society, analyzes the scope of these mobilizations.

They have brandished Israeli flags and chanted slogans against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Tens of thousands of demonstrators marched again, Saturday June 22, in Tel Aviv, to demand early elections and the return of hostages held in the Gaza Strip since the attacks perpetrated by Hamas on October 7.

Similar demonstrations have already brought together tens of thousands of people in recent weeks. However, it is unlikely that these protests will lead to the departure of the head of government, as analyzed for franceinfo by Nitzan Perelman, a specialist in Israeli society and co-founder of the blog Yaani, which publishes critical views from researchers on the Israeli-Israeli contexts. Palestinians.

Franceinfo: Are these demonstrations in Israel a sign of growing opposition to the conduct of the war in Gaza?

Nitzan Perelman : Above all, they express anger over the issue of the hostages and the fact that they are not released for political purposes. [sur les 251 personnes emmenées dans l’enclave palestinienne par le Hamas le 7 octobre, 116 y sont toujours retenues, dont 41 sont considérées mortes par l’armée israélienne]. But the majority of Israeli Jews are not opposed to the war. According to a poll conducted by an American research institute in the spring, 39% of them believe that the military response against Hamas has been about right, while 34% think it has not gone far enough. Lhe crimes that Israel is committing in Gaza or the tragedy that the Palestinians are experiencing are not the main reason for the protests.

However, we can read signs like “Minister of Crime” And “Stop the war”…

Yes, but before the offensive in Rafah, we could also read signs like “First the hostages, then Rafah”. As for the opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu goes back well before the war. Several demonstrations have taken place since the last elections in 2022, in particular against justice reform, perceived as an anti-democratic drift. Benjamin Netanyahu is also seen as a corrupt politician. But a majority thinks that he will only have to leave after the war. This is why he has every interest in prolonging the conflict.

Don’t the army’s open criticism of the government’s lack of post-war strategy weaken it a little more?

In every war, the army has the full confidence of the Israelis. Moreover, the revelations on intelligence flaws and failures before the October 7 attack did not taint this confidence, nor provoke the departure of Benjamin Netanyahu. The only thing that can bring him down, in reality, is the departure of the two far-right ministers from his coalition, the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and that of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich. They also regularly threaten to leave if he accepts American proposals for a ceasefire or in the event of a real relaxation of the entry of humanitarian aid. With the departure of the war cabinet of Centrist Defense Minister Benny Gantz [le 9 juin], Benjamin Netanyahu has less room for maneuver and must listen to them.

Do the tensions with the United States and the Biden administration, as well as the arrest warrant requested by the International Criminal Court against the Prime Minister, have an influence on Israeli opinion?

We must clearly distinguish the positioning of opinion on a national level and on an international level. Israeli Jews will always prefer to display a common front against other countries. After the request of the International Criminal Court, the population largely supported his Prime Minister, although very unpopular. As for relations with the United States, everyone knows that Benjamin Netanyahu is awaiting the November elections and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House. With this argument: “I am a friend of Donald Trump, so it is better that I stay in power so that relations with the United States are optimal.”

Is there a possibility, despite everything, that Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition will fall before the American elections?

The Prime Minister will do everything to ensure that the departure of the two far-right ministers does not occur before then. And unless there is a ceasefire, the latter have no interest in doing so, because they know that current polls predict the coming to power of a coalition of the center and left in the event of elections. anticipated. According to an opinion poll by the N12 channel published on June 21, Benjamin Netanyahu has 28% of voting intentions, compared to 36% for former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. [au pouvoir de juin 2021 à juin 2022]. But Netanyahu is an intelligent politician, a phoenix who has held his own despite five elections in less than four years in Israel and, above all, despite the attack of October 7, for which responsibility is widely attributed to him by Israeli society.