Over the course of a weekend, the insurrection of the Wagner group took on the appearance of an October 1993 coup and finally resembled a routine military parade. Without a clear explanation, the leader of the mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigojine, ordered the withdrawal of his troops and the abandonment of the march towards the Kremlin on Saturday. International attention is now focused on the Kremlin’s stabilization efforts and the level of instability caused by the crisis.
Before marching towards Moscow with his troops, which he estimated at 25,000 mercenaries, Yevgueni Prigojine published a video on Saturday decrying the management of the war in Ukraine. Attacking the justifications of the war and the senior officers, the leader of the armed militia rose up against the Russian government. He was particularly targeting the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of Staff, Valéri Guérassimov, whom he accuses of having sacrificed the lives of 100,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine in vain.
“There is currently a fog around Wagner,” summarizes Dominique Arel, professor at the University of Ottawa specializing in politics in Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia and member of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies.
Statements are rare on the side of the private militia as well as on the side of the Russian and Belarusian governments. So far, among Russia’s top brass, only Vladimir Putin has come forward publicly. More than 10 hours after this appearance, a general radio silence continues, leaving observers in the dark as to the medium-term impact of this insurrection.
“The morale of the Russian troops in this war is already quite low,” says Dominique Arel. According to the expert, corruption, disorganization and even questions about the good foundations of this war had already undermined the motivation of the Russian army and the slap in the face represented by this military march towards Moscow will not help matters. “It’s a deep humiliation,” notes Professor Arel. The arrival in the Moscow oblast without any real resistance demonstrates, according to him, the inability of senior Russian officers to manage a crisis situation.
“Changes in leadership positions are unlikely to have fundamental effects on the situation,” he said. While some rumors suggest the dismissal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valéri Guérassimov, the expert doubts the real repercussions such a gesture could have. “The Russian body politic is an aging body,” says Dominique Arel. Most have been there for more than 15 years, Putin was first elected in 2000, he has been there for 23 years. Since it is the Russian political class as a whole that is crippled by corruption, the dismissal of some Russian political cadres will not have a significant effect, he adds.
The Chinese ally and the American opponent
China, which had been discreet in the early hours of the insurrection, finally spoke through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Like many of Moscow’s allies, Beijing notes the internal nature of the insurgency, but supports the importance of “protecting stability.”
The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister landed in Beijing on Sunday to meet with Qin Gan, Chinese Foreign Minister. It is still uncertain if the visit of the Russian diplomat is a direct response aimed at reassuring the Chinese ally in the face of internal crises or if it was already planned that the two politicians meet this Sunday.
Afraid of being accused of involvement in the revolt through a commentary, the United States also remained discreet until the lull on Sunday. “We haven’t seen the last act yet,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken. But “the fact that you have someone inside questioning Putin’s authority and directly challenging why he launched this aggression of Ukraine, that in itself is something very powerful” .
From revolutionary to exile
On Saturday, Prigozhin proudly declared the capture of Rostov “without firing a shot”. In the evening, driving aboard a black SUV, the window open, the man left the city like a star. A crowd of men huddled together hoping to get a photo with the instigator of the uprising.
The current location of the oligarch remains unknown for the moment. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, said on Saturday that Yevgeny Prigojine was expected in Belarus. While the insurrection was still ongoing, President Lukashenko claims to have acted as an independent mediator in an appeal whose content is a source of speculation.
Reality, however, tarnishes this image that he tries to give himself. In 2014, Belarus could claim to have a certain autonomy, but since the theft of the elections and the call for support from Moscow to put an end to the uprisings against Alexander Lukashenko, the country appears as a subordinate of Russia. “Lukashenko is Putin’s vassal”, illustrates Mr. Arel. The image of a golden exile in Belarus for Prigojine therefore does not really hold water, according to him.
Now withdrawn from Rostov-on-Don, Wagner’s troops are both relieved not to have to fight their compatriots and confused at the about-face of the insurgent leader, who leaves them with no real explanation.
Populated by more than a million inhabitants, the city of Rostov-on-Don, which was the command center of the war in Ukraine, became the headquarters of the insurgency. Taken aback, the citizens had to rub shoulders with Wagner’s men with hidden faces, and with assault rifles slung over their shoulders. Despite the confusion, the inhabitants say they are relieved by the departure of the mercenaries and are gradually resuming their daily activities. In the middle of the streets, the tracks of the tanks remain however, as only witnesses of this bad dream.