A lot of uncertainties hover around Omicron, but one thing is certain: this variant is spreading very quickly. This mutation of the coronavirus is spreading at the same speed as at the start of the pandemic.
The transmission rate (Rt) of the Omicron variant is 3.32 according to Ontario health authorities. The United Kingdom rather estimates this new Rt at 3.7. In other words, each person infected with Omicron will infect between 3 and 4 others in turn. These data are similar to statistics observed in April 2020 and are “credible”, according to virologist Benoît Barbeau.
The contamination curve in South Africa confirms this new trend. The most recent mutation only took a month to become dominant in South Africa, as the Delta variant gradually gained the upper hand in the summer of 2021.
Data from England point in the same direction. “We were talking about ten percentages of positive samples [à Omicron], and suddenly we are talking about 40%, ”says Benoît Barbeau. “This variant is transmitted extremely actively, even in a population that is relatively well vaccinated.”
Vaccines still appear to provide protection against severe forms of COVID-19. However, a small percentage of serious forms in a very large number of infections would mean an overload of health systems, notes the virologist associated with UQAM.
“If we do not control this transmission enough, even if Omicron is not associated with serious symptoms, if you have 4000 to 5000 cases per day, you are going to have a lot. [à l’hôpital]. “
If transmission resumes again, the situation is not exactly the same as in early 2020, because health authorities have more tools. Medical interventions have improved. Aerosol transmission is better understood and ventilation prevention better applied. The vaccines remain effective, and a third dose will soon become a reality. “We have a lot of solutions within our reach. They must be used in a targeted manner, ”advises the expert in virology.
This text is taken from our newsletter “The Coronavirus Mail” of December 13, 2021. To subscribe, click here.