The number of deaths in Gaza is significantly underestimated, according to the scientific journal “The Lancet”

Researchers counted the deaths directly caused by Israeli bombings, but also all past and future indirect deaths linked to lack of care or malnutrition.

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Children at a UN-run school destroyed by Israeli bombardment on July 7, 2024 in Nuseirat, Gaza Strip. (EYAD BABA / AFP)

In the Middle East, the war, now in its tenth month, is showing no sign of respite. The Israeli army is leading a new major offensive in the city of Gaza. Leaflets have been dropped calling on residents to evacuate their homes. Another operation has provoked a lot of reaction: a school sheltering refugees in the south of the enclave was bombed, killing 29 people. Germany denounces a strike “unacceptable”This is the fourth time a school has been hit in four days, raising fears of a deliberate strategy.

The toll is therefore still rising and could be much higher than previously thought. The war would have caused 186,000 deaths in ten months, according to the calculations of the scientific journal The Lancet.

This assessment does not come from a scientific article, but from an editorial by three doctors, which The Lancet calls for a correspondence, dated July 5. The three researchers count the deaths killed directly in the bombings, but also all the indirect deaths past and future linked to the lack of care or malnutrition. It is therefore a projection based on previous conflicts. “An extremely summary method of calculation, which results in an order of magnitude necessarily very imprecise”precise Release.

As of Wednesday, the official death toll was 38,295, according to the Hamas-linked Gaza Health Ministry. A count that is obviously approximate given the context, probably underestimated but validated by the UN and the Palestinian Authority.


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